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Showing posts from September, 2014

Consumers to lead Nifty beyond 10k mark

Thought for the day ”Some say the world will end in fire, some say in ice." -           Robert Frost (American, 1874-1963) Word for the day D efenestrate (Trn verb) To throw out of a window. (Source: Dictionary.com) Teaser for the day I said "Bharat Ratana for K. Radhakrishnan"! Twitratti said "Who's he?" Consumers to lead Nifty beyond 10k mark In past few weeks some reputable global investment Gurus have joined chorus with numerous analysts and strategists in pronouncing secular bull market for Indian equities. India is thus gradually becoming a consensus overweight in global portfolios. I am also putting up in the same camp, but finding it difficult to adjust with the cacophony. I often find the arguments supporting the "secular bull market" incongruent, incomprehensible and frenzied. I also see the dissonance in the actions of bull market proponents insofar as the c...

New jargon on the street

Thought for the day ”The woods are lovely, dark and deep. But I have promises to keep, and miles to go before I sleep." -           Robert Frost (American, 1874-1963) Word for the day Malversation (n) Misconduct, corruption, or extortion in public office. (Source: Dictionary.com) Teaser for the day After telecom licenses, coal blocks, should SC look at cases of large land allotment also? New jargon on the street I had the most uneventful visit to India's financial capital early this week. I met some large investors, business consultants, equity analysts, wealth managers and businessmen. Despite a stupendous run in the stock market on the back of stable macros, political stability not seen in past three decades, improving US economy, huge foreign flows, return of domestic risk appetite after six long years, super success of couple of IPOs, I found the mood on the street ...

Case against "Make in India" - IV

Thought for the day ”Happiness is when what you think, what you say, and what you do are in harmony." -           Mahatma Gandhi (India, 1869-1948) Word for the day Disport (v) To amuse oneself in light or lively manner; to frolic. (Source: Dictionary.com) Teaser for the day Shocked to find millions of examiners evaluating an "Answer" without any reference to the "Question"! Case against "Make in India" - IV I am amazed at the ferocity of criticism to my Friday's column wherein I just wished that the "better life" for 1.3bn citizens should be the primary force behind government's development agenda rather than some meaningless numbers on the Excel Sheets maintained by CSO statisticians. Some of my friends from Mumbai feel that I have become a communist after moving to Delhi early this summer. I strongly refute. Nothing could be farther from the truth. In fact,...

Case against "Make in India" - III

Thought for the day ”It's easier to resist at the beginning than at the end." -           Leonardo da Vinci (Italian, 1452-1519) Word for the day Ken (v) Knowledge, understanding, or cognizance; mental perception (Source: Dictionary.com) Teaser for the day QE3 completely tapered. Equity markets are at all time high. US and European Bonds are also close to their peak. No crash. No great rotation. No hyper-inflation. What'd be the next "big theme"? Case against "Make in India" - III The apparent motive behind "Make in India" mission is to alleviate poverty through creation of large number of employment opportunities. This objective, the protagonists claim, will be achieved by acceleration in economic growth through higher industrialization. I am not sure if there is much evidence to substantiate this optimism. To the contrary, there is some e...

Case against "Make in India" - II

Thought for the day ”You do ill if you praise, but worse if you censure, what you do not understand." -           Leonardo da Vinci (Italian, 1452-1519) Word for the day Sporadic (adj) Occurring singly, or occasionally, or in scattered instances. (Source: Dictionary.com) Teaser for the day What is top priority for "concerned" Indians at this point in time? (a)    iPhone 6 (b)    Accessories for iPhone6 (c)    Counting abs of Shahrukh Khan (d)    Separate VISA for visiting Edinburgh (e)    Hotel booking for October 2-6 and November 6-9 long weekends. Case against "Make in India" - II Making cement is perhaps one of the simplest manufacturing processes. This primarily involves calcining the limestone mixing it with clay or ash and grinding it into fine powder. Having produced it for many decades, many m...

Case against "Make in India"

Thought for the day ”The greatest deception men suffer is from their own opinions." -           Leonardo da Vinci (Italian, 1452-1519) Word for the day Refractory (adj) Stubbornly disobedient; unmanageable. (Source: Dictionary.com) Teaser for the day What does various by-poll results suggest: (a) Modi magic is waning. (b) Amit Shah's political strategy of polarization on religious line has totally failed. (c)   The era of BJP vs. Rest has firmly arrived. (d) Cong has a real chance in Haryana and Maharashtra. (e)   BJP needs to change its post May'14 media strategy. (f)            All of the above. Case against "Make in India" In past few months leaders from both ruling NDA and opposition UPA have spoken about making India a manufacturing hub. PM's Independence Day "Make in India" exho...

By-polls and markets

T he market reacted negatively to the recent by-poll results in which the ruling BJP has received serious setback, especially in the state of Uttar Pradesh. In my view, the market participants should be encouraged by the current political trend as it will more likely: (a)          Lend further urgency to the efforts of the government to put the things in order insofar as the economic growth and development agenda is concerned; (b)          Push the hardline elements within BJP to fringes. (c)           Motivate scattered opposition to unite to make it BJP vs. the rest in coming elections as well as in the parliament. This brings a strong (though hostile) opposition in place to exercise necessary check and balance on the government. This may also mark the end of fractured coalition politics. (d)     ...

Mythology of bubbles

Thought for the day ”I have been impressed with the urgency of doing. Knowing is not enough; we must apply. Being willing is not enough; we must do." -           Leonardo da Vinci (Italian, 1452-1519) Word for the day Geep (n) T he hybrid offspring of a goat and a sheep (Source: Dictionary.com) Teaser for the day If BJP makes a government in Delhi and works for common good, in 2018 no one will remember how the government was formed. For all you know AAP may not even be there to remind people!   Mythology of bubbles In Hindu mythology, once the forces of good (Sura) and evil (Asura) had a protracted battle. The battle lasted so long that both the groups exhausted all their resources and valor. Completely tired, wounded, frustrated and exhausted, they approached the savior Lord Vishnu. The Savior advised them to go and explore the great ocean to find new resources and vigor to m...

Yet another midway diversion proposed

Thought for the day ”If you can look into the seeds of time, and say which grain will grow and which will not, speak then unto me." -           William Shakespeare (English, 1564-1616) Word for the day Maudlin (adj) Tearfully or excessively sentimental. (Source: Dictionary.com) Teaser for the day Does Arvind Kejriwal know that you could only buy the things which are put on sale by the present owners! Yet another midway diversion proposed A recent Deutsch Bank research report highlighted that India is witnessing emergence of a "clear and internally coherent economic model" that includes "export oriented manufacturing, heavy infrastructure building and urbanization". in a material shift away from "India’s current services-driven growth trajectory" This emerging model is found akin to "an East Asian growth model based on the mass deployment of labour and capital". The DB analy...