The recent utterances by the prime minister & finance
minister and the steps taken by the RBI & government to handle the economic
problems being faced by the country confirm at least three things:
I. The
government is unwillingly coming out of denial mode and accepting that the
economy is in a serious mess.
II. The
policy makers are terribly short of ideas to get out of this mess.
III. The
country is losing badly in the game of perception, at a time when most troubled
countries, including China, Italy and Spain, have successfully managed the
perceptions.
This provides
further support to our
fear that in this corrective phase we might regress all the way to
1967-1975 period rather than halting at 1991.
Consider the
following:
(a)
The political leadership of the country is
feeling as insecure as Mrs. Gandhi might have in the years prior to imposition
of emergency.
(b)
At a time when the general public is
overwhelmingly concerned with price of onions, the prime minister is promising
13 new airports as a solution!
(c)
By bringing back capital controls, the government
has successfully mismanaged the perceptions. The club circuit has already
started discussing reincarnation of FERA. No surprise if lower BTQ, overseas
travel tax, 25% duty on gold imports are next on the agenda. Money laundering
through over-invoicing of imports and under-invoicing of exports would be the
logical follow up.
(d)
The rising strife between (i)) bureaucracy and
executive, and (ii) judiciary and legislature is also reminiscent of that
period.
(e)
Scuttling the move to bring political parties under
RTI and restricting criminals from contesting elections are also indicative of
low political tolerance.
(f)
With an onerous responsibility to provide cheap
food to 800mn people under the National Food Security Bill, the food grain
trade may likely get nationalized at state level. Rationing, hoarding, black
marketing, restriction on interstate trade, crop mismanagement etc may stage
comeback. The trial is already on with the government setting up vegetable
shops in various parts of the country.
(g)
Unable to manage stress, most power and
commercial road projects could get devolved on public financial institutions
and thus get nationalized, much the same way as banks were done in late 1960s’.
(h)
The perception of threat from external forces is
being fueled much like 70’s and 80’s.
Last but not the least, Narendra Modi is trying hard to create a
JP like national movement making the establishment more jittery. So far, he has
not been able to enlist much support from non-BJP parties. A strong movement
led by Modi with a Morarji Bhai like Gandhian face as PM could perhaps spring
some hope. Amen!
Also read:
Thought for the day
“You never know how soon it will be too late.”
- R. W. Emerson(1803-1882)
Word of the day
Jilt (v):
To reject or cast aside (a lover or sweetheart), especially abruptly or unfeelingly.
(Source: Dictionary.com)
Shri Nārada Uvāca
Everyone concerned in the world, except BJP parliamentary board, seems to have acknowledged that Narendra Modi is a candidate for PMship and does stand a chance.
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