- BJP appears losing in Karnataka, but there is no Congress wave. BSY appears headed towards political oblivion ala Kalyan Singh in UP.
- Delhi will be a close contest between BJP and Congress. BSP could surprise with 3-5 seats in 70member assembly.
- Drinking water is main problem in both states.
- Rise in unemployment and crime due to mining ban and draught are real concern in Karnataka.
- CWG scam/shame appears mostly forgotten/ forgiven.
- Women security, inflation and corruption are not real concerns for the people in Delhi despite media blitzkrieg.
In past four weeks our team travelled extensively in the poll
bound states of Karnataka and Delhi. While these two states have a little in
common, the indifference of common people towards political establishment was
too stark. The corruption, contrary to popular perception, was not a real
concern though in Delhi it was major topic of discussion. The key points noted
during these interactions and general observations were as follows:
Karnataka
We travelled to eight districts in north and central
Karnataka viz. Belgaum, Uttar Kannad, Dharwar, Bagalkot, Bijapr, Gulbarga,
Gadag and Bellary and spoke to over 300 individuals and few groups of people
from different walks.
(a)
The festive look usually associated with
election was completely missing. People were totally indifferent to political
parties and establishment. Corruption is an issue that does not bother many
people.
(b)
Mining ban and draught has caused substantial
rise in unemployment, especially in rural areas, and crime in urban areas. The
economic stress was too conspicuous to ignore even in remotest of places. 28km
stretch of NH4A from Ramnagar towards Belgaum city which had only potholes and
virtually no road aptly reflected the mood of the people. Electricity and
drinking water are two major concerns for women.
(c)
The consumer and business confidence remains low
and may not improve substantially post elections.
(d)
Insofar as political preference is concerned,
BJP appeared losing but there was no wave for Congress. Former CM B. S.
Yeddyurappa appear headed towards political oblivion, ala Kalyan Singh in UP.
Delhi
(a)
Though elections are few months away, Delhi is
already buzzing. People are discussing only politics and little else.
(b)
Arvind Kejariwal is a topic of discussion but
hardly considered a political force to reckon with. Large scams like 2G,
Coalgate etc. do not excite people. People are mostly satisfied with the
infrastructure created during CWG and largely appear to have forgiven the
scam/shame part.
(c)
BJP leadership is highly charged up but workers
on the ground are completely disenchanted. Absence of strong local leadership
is impacting the morale. Congress also remains a divided house. BSP is making
further inroads into East, North East and South Delhi. In our view, it will be
a close contest and BSP with 3-5 seats could be a critical force in 70member
assembly. Announcing Modi a PM candidate may help BJP massively in Delhi
election at least, as Gujarat CM is found to be extremely popular amongst youth
and middle classes of Urban Delhi.
(d)
Drinking water is a major concern in many
pockets. Women safety, corruption etc. were not found to be real concerns.
(e)
Real estate developers, auto dealers, commodity
traders and SMEs are under tremendous financial stress. Inflation has impacted
consumption patterns though it may not be an election issue..…to be continued on 26th April
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