Tuesday, March 26, 2013

The retail conundrum - III


The retail conundrum - III

We find a strong equity culture amongst Indian households. However, factors like fewer employment opportunities, better business opportunities and dismal performance of publicly traded equity have led them to invest more in their own business and/or home equity rather than listed equity.
The need therefore is to reinvent the Gandhian model of socio-economic development by focusing on small household enterprise, rather than relying on Nehruvian model of unbalanced growth and development of large enterprise, that has mostly failed in promoting inclusive growth.


The debate on the household investors’ indifference to the listed equity would be incomplete and totally misdirected if we ignore the structural changes in Indian economy in past two decades.

In our view, post liberalization of trade and commerce in 1990’s, the number of self entrepreneurs has certainly increased in the country. This has coincided with the sharp fall in public sector employment. The aggregate private sector employment level has not been able to compensate for fewer opportunities available in public and unincorporated private sector. Consequently, the total number of employees on live payrolls has fallen sharply since early 2000’s.

The combination of two – lower employment opportunities and liberal business rules – has perhaps forced people towards entrepreneurship. The number of self owned enterprise has swelled in past one decade, implying people are investing in more in equity, but not in listed equity.

(a)   As per 67th round of NSSO survey (June 2011), there were 58million unincorporated enterprises in India (excluding agriculture, construction and those registered under Factories Act). Over 85% of these enterprises are run by the owner himself, without any hired worker. 44% of these were run from the residence of the owner. These enterprises employed 108mn people against just 39mn on the live payroll in organized sectors, including 11mn in private sector. (Source: RBI, NSSO)

(b)   These self owned enterprises generated annual gross profit of Rs6283.56bn; whereas all listed companies in India generated gross profit of Rs610.44bn in FY12. 1/3rd of this profit was earned by top 36 PSUs. Top 100 listed companies accounted for over 76% of this value addition.

The point we are making is that there is a strong equity culture amongst Indian households. However, factors like fewer employment opportunities, better business opportunities and dismal performance of publically traded equity have led them to invest more in their own business and/or home equity rather than listed equity. With most of your net worth in your business’s equity, you obviously need protection of gold.

(Source: RBI, NSSO)

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