Do it yourself

The 4QFY20 economic data has again highlighted the points, I have been emphasizing for past many quarters, which is- (i)     The economic growth in India has been declining structurally since the global financial crisis (GFC) of 2008-09. For couple of year, monetary and fiscal stimulus given by the extant government to mitigate the impact of global crisis supported the growth. However, post FY13, the growth trajectory never looked like retracing to pre GFC levels. A strong number in FY22 would be purely a base effect.   (ii)    The long term growth curve in India has shifted down. The potential growth in India is no longer 8% plus. The pivot is somewhere close to 6%. (iii)   The global deflationary pressures are causing the nominal growth curve to shift down even more than the real growth. It is pertinent to note that a sustained fal...

Continuing from yesterday (see Farm sector economics in India - 3 ) Yesterday, I suggested 10 illustrative farm level reforms that need to be implemented "urgently, vigorously, simultaneously", along with the necessary policy level and social level reforms to have a positive structural shift in the conditions of the farmers in India. It is critical for ensuring sustainable higher economic growth and realization of the objective of self reliance. Policy level reforms There was this feudal lord, who had enslaved a number of peasants on different pretexts. He would make them toil hard the whole day and give two inadequate meals to survive. Occasionally, on festivals, birthdays of his children, his marriage anniversary, and death anniversary of his parents, he would treat them with a good meal and sweets. Once in 3-4yrs, during winters, he would give them new blankets so that they do not die of cold. In return, the bonded peasants were expected to hai...

Continuing from yesterday ( see Farm sector economics in India - 2 ) I have said this earlier also, and I do mind reiterating. To bring any meaningful improvement in the fragile condition of India's farming community, a comprehensive rural development effort is needed. Any piecemeal solution like occasional loan waiver shall have almost no sustainable impact. The traditional farmer welfare measures like periodic hikes in support prices for certain crops, farm input subsidies, interest rate subvention have not yielded the desired results. In my view, a sustainable improvement in Indian farmers' conditions is possible only under a comprehensive rural development mission. The mission should address the problem with structural reforms at three levels, viz., 1. Farm Level; 2. Policy Level and 3. Social Level. All reforms must be pursued "urgently, vigorously, simultaneously" and in a fully integrated fashion, for having a meaningfully sustainable impact....

Continuing from last week (See Farm sector economics in India ) The issue of laborers migrating from large cities and industrially developed towns to villages & towns of industrially backward UP, Bihar, Jharkhand, Chhattisgarh, etc has caught everyone's attention in past few weeks. This migration is being widely seen as a fall out of COVID-19 induced lockdown of socio-economic activities. Indubitably, the lockdown has prompted many workers to wind up their household and move back to their home towns. But it would be a grave mistake to assume that lockdown is the only reason for the migration. The rate of unemployment amongst migrant and other workers was rising consistently since past few years. Demonetization and GST dealt a major blow to the jobs in unorganized and MSME sector. Besides, these workers were faced with the double whammy of stagnant to declining wages and rising cost of living. To highlight my point, I would cite my favorite example again. ...