Do it yourself

Whereas the investors have enough good opportunities to invest in markets, the traders are facing many challenges. The biggest challenge is that most trading opportunities are available in the cyclical businesses like commodities and automobile. The price movements in these stocks are sharp and quick on both sides. Since most of these stocks (metals, sugar, paper, cement, textile, power, auto etc.) have already gained significantly from their recent lows and are no longer available at cheap valuations, the margin of safety in trading these stocks is obviously low. In past couple of decades, the commodity cycles have been short and deep. If this cycle also turns out to be a usual cycle, against a super cycle as widely assumed, the corrections could be quick and deep. In these circumstances, most of the traders, especially the smaller ones, are forced to trade with small quantities. The holding period is much smaller, mostly less than a week. Profits/losses are booked at much smaller...

 An impromptu discussion with my friend, & favourite fund manager, yesterday was quite disconcerting. We raised some pertinent questions and tried answering those questions with even more pertinent questions; the answers though remained elusive. The discussion started from my yesterday’s note ( see here ) which highlighted that despite signs of recovery, India’s GDP may contract in 4QFY21 and may barely grow at 1% CAGR during twp year period (FY20-FY22). Also, some suspect, FY22 may also not be as good (10%+ yoy growth) as presently anticipated. Some of the questions that did not have clear answers were— ·          How could market be excited about cyclicals, especially commodities, with 1% CAGR growth over FY20-FY22? ·          If logistic constraints are leading to higher commodity prices, should investors be not worried about manufacturers who face raw material shortages, higher input cost ...

The GDP data for 3QFY21 and second advance estimates for FY21, released by CSO last Friday has evoked mixed response from economists. While the positive growth number (0.4%) for 3QFY21 has been received with a sigh of relief (as it ends the technical recession), the downgrade of full year FY21 estimates from -7.5% to -8%, implies a negative growth print for 4QFY21. Presently, growth estimates for 4QFY21 range between -0.8% to -1.5%. The slowing momentum in 4QFY21 has also resulted in changes in FY22 growth estimates; which now mostly range between 10-11%. This implies a normalized growth of about 1% CAGR over FY21-FY22. I have highlighted this issue earlier also. For common man nominal GDP is more important because lot of variables like effective taxation, budgetary allocations for development and social welfare, subsidies, salaries of public servants, etc. are calculated as a factor of the nominal GDP. Lower nominal GDP essentially means lower income for people and lower tax revenue f...

In a significant move for the banking industry, the central government has proposed to lift the embargo on grant of government business to private banks. Whereas, de facto the government has always favored public sector banks for grant of government business, the de jure embargo was imposed in 2012 post global financial crisis to protect the small savers and public entities from a potential collapse. Initially the embargo was imposed for a period of 3years; but it was extended further in 2015; through some private sector banks with public sector legacy (ICICI, Axis etc) were continued to be permitted to conduct some part of the government agency business. As per the latest announcement, the embargo is proposed to be lifted completely. This announcement has come at a time when the government would be starting the process privatize couple of public sector banks (PSBs), and diluting its shareholding in other PSBs. In past couple of decades, many public sector undertakings have faced s...

The latest earning season (3QFY21) has been one of the best in recent times. Companies across sectors reported encouraging revenue growth. The margins also improved on the back of lower input cost and wage rationalization. Accumulated demand (due to two quarters of lockdown) and festive season may have a significant role to play in the demand growth during 3QFY21. It is anticipated that as the economy continues to open up further as vaccination drive accelerates and mobility restrictions are eased further, the demand growth may sustain for few more quarters. The demand environment is also supported by the counter cyclical fiscal policy and continued accommodative stance of monetary policy. The quarterly earnings surprised many analysts on both EBIDTA and PAT level; while on top line the surprises were lesser in number. For Nifty companies, on aggregate basis, EBIDTA margins and PAT margins were flat. However, after adjusting for exceptional losses in Bharti Airtel and Tata Motors, pict...

Crypto currency (e.g. Bitcoin) is proving to be the best asset class for the Covid-19 infected FY21. Most crypto currencies have yielded astronomical returns in a year that suffered the worst synchronized global recession since the great depression of 1930s. Against this, the traditional safe haven Gold, Swiss Franc (CHF), USD and US Treasuries have yielded insignificant return. USD Index (DXY) in fact has declined over 10% YTD FY21. Silver is the only traditional asset, besides equities, that has yielded strong return in past 11 months. Regardless, the overwhelming consensus amongst global strategists appear to be favouring gold and silver as overweight in asset allocation of non-institutional investors. Most wealth managers and investment strategists are suggesting upto 15% allocation to gold ( for example see here ). Many globally popular and prominent traders, chartists and strategists have suggested a massive bull market in Silver in next couple of years ( see here ) Meeting w...

For a large part of 20 th   century Coal was a very important part of our lives. Railways, which were the largest medium of long distance inland travel, operated mostly on coal. An overwhelming proportion of electricity was generated using coal. The black gold was also a key ingredient for producing steel, cement, aluminium, copper, and a variety of chemicals. Things began to change slowly in second half of 20 th   century and change accelerated in the last quarter of the century. Petroleum and Natural Gas started to gain share as major source of transportation fuel, electricity production, industrial feed stock and medium for cooking. From last decade of 20 th   century, the share of renewable sources in India’s energy mix is also rising consistently. Nonetheless, coal remains the most important source of energy for Indian consumers and industry. As per the latest data published by USEIA, “primary energy consumption in India has nearly tripled between 1990 and 2018, reac...

In Sri Ganganagar town of Rajasthan, the retail price of petrol has reached in three digits for the first time in Indian markets. This is culmination of a series of price hikes over past one year. Over 25% rise in domestic retail fuel price has happened when the average global crude prices have been much lower. Even on yoy basis, the brent crude prices are almost unchanged presently; and INR is stronger by over 5% as compared to USD. The consistent rise in transportation fuel, when the consumers were deep in distress, economy was struggling and crude prices were falling sharply, has invited sharp criticism of the government. It is pertinent to note that all subsidies on transportation fuel were removed some years ago and presently none of the transportation fuel is subsidized. Therefore the rise in fuel prices cannot be attributed to rationalization of subsidies. Social media is also full of satirical memes about the consistently rising fuel prices. In this context, it is also pertinen...

One of the key features of the Union Budget for FY22, that needs to be noted by the investors, is the proposal to implement some important reforms in the power sector. The finance minister mentioned the following in her speech on this subject: “61. The distribution companies across the country are monopolies, either government or private. There is a need to provide choice to consumers by promoting competition. A framework will be put in place to give consumers alternatives to choose from among more than one Distribution Company. 62. The viability of Distribution Companies is a serious concern. A revamped reforms-based result-linked power distribution sector scheme will be launched with an outlay of Rs3,05,984 crores over 5 years. The scheme will provide assistance to DISCOMS for Infrastructure creation including pre-paid smart metering and feeder separation, upgradation of systems, etc., tied to financial improvements.” Budgetary outlay for the sector has also been enhanced by 22...

The pace of vaccination across the globe is accelerating with each passing day. It is hopes that in next 6 months, we may have a reasonable number of people inoculated against Covid-19 infection; and the life may begin to normalize (even if it is new normal!) and become more predictable as compared to the life in 2020. However, from investors’ perspective a rather strange thing seems to be happening. Many investors had bought shares of leading vaccine manufacturers in the hope of extraordinary gains. To their disappointment, many of them are suffering losses. Pfizer Inc. (-8.1% in one year) and AstraZeneca (-4.75% in one year) are two examples; though Moderna Inc (up 740% in one year) has done well. In Indian context, AstraZeneca (-20% YTD 2021); Pfizer (-13% YTD 2021) Dr Reddy’s Lab (-8% YTD 2020) have all performed poorly on stock exchanges. The other listed vaccine prospect Cadila Healthcare (-2% YTD 2021) is also doing poorly. Obviously, it is a case of the excessive exuber...