Do it yourself

One of my close friends bought a plot of land in the outskirts of the city of Dehradun in Uttarakhand, a decade ago. The reason, he outlined, for this investment was that Dehradun is a good place to retire. It is peaceful & clean and has a much lower cost of living. Considering the rising level of pollution (air, noise and water) in larger cities, people would want to move to such places in future. The property prices would therefore appreciate considerably. After a decade, the price of his plot is up by some 300%. He is happy that he made a very good investment decision. When I pointed out to him that Dehradun is no longer the peaceful, clean and cheap city it used to be ten years ago. Therefore, his investment premise has mostly failed. Besides, the land prices in many areas of the NCR have risen equal to or more than Dehradun in the past one decade. The point to ponder over is if you earn a good return on your investment in spite of your assumptions behind making such inve...

One of the basic principles of economics is that no one makes abnormal gains (or loss) from an economic activity over a longer period. The forces of demand and supply tend to attain a state of equilibrium as higher margins attract more supplies and lower margins push the marginal suppliers out of the market. In the short term, however, suppliers can make super profits taking advantage of the demand-supply inequilibrium. Most economic activities thus follow a cyclical path rather than a linear path. This principle does not apply to the states where markets are not free and monopolies with state protection and patronage are allowed to thrive at the expense of consumers. We have also witnessed that businesses that own niche intellectual property rights (IPRs) or ownership of scarce natural resources have defied this principle for a much longer period of time, as compared to the usual businesses. Applying this principle to the current market scenario, I find that the investors may be ignor...

  Not so defensive Self-reliance in the defense sector has been one of the major investment themes in the past three years. Besides dedicated public sector defense manufacturers, the stocks of many equipment and service providers to the Indian defense establishments have seen a sharp upmove. In the melee to own “defense stocks,” many investors have ignored the basic principles of investment and buying stocks of these companies at any price. I had written a cautionary post about this many months ago ( see here ). The trend has only strengthened in the past six months. Stocks, even remotely associated with the defense sector, have seen hyperbolic moves. I feel the interest in the sector that was driven initially by optimism, may have crossed over the realm of exuberance.