Vijay Kumar Gaba: Youth

Thursday, February 29, 2024

Cognitive dissonance- 3

Continuing from yesterday.

If the job crisis is so severe, why is the incumbent government so popular, especially among the youth?

The incumbent prime minister, reportedly, enjoys the highest rating amongst the popular leaders of the world. In particular, he is very popular amongst the youth and women in India.

India faces one of the worst youth unemployment rates globally. Indian homemakers are facing serious challenges in managing their household budgets due to inflation. According to the World Bank, the youth unemployment rate in India could be comparable to war-torn economies like Syria, Yemen, Lebanon etc. The unemployment rate and household inflation have worsened or failed to improve in the past 10 years.

The question thus arises, why is the incumbent government still popular amongst youth and women?

I have discussed this aspect with numerous common people, like myself, nationwide over the past couple of years. My conclusion is as follows:

(a) Contrary to common perception, the incumbent government is not very popular with the people. It is the Prime Minister who is popular, not his team or the administration. A majority of people defend the prime minister, arguing that he sincerely wants to make life of the people better, but the administration is corrupt and not supporting him fully.

(b) A majority of the prime minister’s supporters believe that he is a divine incarnation and he could only salvage them from their misery and distress.

(c) The popularity of the incumbent government and the prime minister is significantly higher in West and North India, as compared to South and East India. He is also relatively less popular in the states where there are strong local leaders.

(d) The lower middle-class youth is increasingly becoming kind of masochist. They appear to be comfortable with their pain and misery, so long as their neighbors are more miserable and are in deeper pain.

(e) Above all, the welfare schemes of the government have benefitted poor households. The campaign to promote these schemes is very strong and effective, strengthening the connection between beneficiaries and the prime Minister.

(f) Overindulgence with social media is making youth delusional.

(g) Partisan reporting by electronic media has affected the judgment of gullible households to a material extent.

(h) The lack of a visible opposition leader with a pan-India appeal, and the lack of any competition from within the BJP to the prime minister’s supremacy, are helping the prime

Tuesday, February 18, 2020

Act before its too late

The global rating agency Moody's Investors Service has again slashed India’s 2020 GDP growth forecast. The latest projections by Moody's peg 2020 GDP growth to 5.4% (earlier 6.6%); and 2021 GDP growth to 5.8% (earlier 6.7%). The rating agency has highlighted the disruptions in global trade arising due to spread of coronavirus as one of the reasons for slower growth. In other concerns, lower than potential GST collections is one of the prominent concerns expressed by the agency.

If the history is any indicator of the trade trends, we can reasonably conclude that any major shift in the trade from one jurisdiction to the other, even if it is due to temporary disruptions, is not easily reversed after the disrupting condition cease to exist. Shift of automobile and electronics manufacturing from Japan to USA and then from USA to China is one example.

India lost some of its textile exports to Bangladesh due to child labor issues. We also lost currency and derivative trading business to Dubai and Singapore due to taxation and other issues. These shifts could not be reversed despite some serious efforts.

Within country, West Bengal lost Tata Motors plant to Gujarat. The state has failed to attract any other major industry after that despite many promotional efforts. Punjab lost its industry and financial strength due to militancy. It has failed to recover even after more than 25yrs have elapsed since end of militancy in the state.

China is presently facing two disruptions - one due to the trade related disputes with USA and the other due to spread of coronavirus. These disruptions must have prompted a rethink amongst many global businesses who source material and/or manufacturing services from China. A de-risking strategy would warrant diversification to alternative sources of supply for goods and services. Obviously most eligible sources like Vietnam, Taiwan, Malaysia, and Indonesia etc are apparently making concerted to welcome the businesses looking at diversification from China.

We do have seen some efforts being made in India. The efforts however appear limited to lowering of corporate tax rates in line with the other competing jurisdictions. No major effort seems to have been made to ensure smooth transition of business from China to India.

Missing this once in a decade kind of opportunity would be a costly mistake in my view. Evaluating this opportunity merely in terms of revenue or trade may not be appropriate. It must be viewed and understood from a much larger perspective.

With a huge number of unemployed, underemployed, unemployable and employed in disguised youth, rising socio-economic inequalities, burgeoning aspirations, increasingly shrinking blue collar jobs, stagnant wages which are awfully short in meeting youth aspirations, we are staring at (for lack of a better word) Latinization of our society - drugs, crime and sex becoming a way of life for the youth who finds it hard to find meaningful occupation and lacks resources for professional training and education.

The rising number of cases of petty crimes, drugs related crimes and arrests, sex related crimes, day light robberies, cyber crimes etc provide ample evidence that we are moving fast in that direction. For now, perhaps the religion and traditions are providing some checks and balances, but this resistance may not last much longer. Once we slip into the abyss, it may take decades to come out. Remember, the naxal movement that started in 1960s under similar circumstances, is still alive in some parts of the country.

The government needs to focus on employment generating ventures, not for potential revenue generation but from the social view point. A total and comprehensive review of the education and training ecosystem in the country is also needed urgently and desperately.