Dilemma : Stay with TINA or run towards hills?
The September 2020 Global Fund Managers' survey conducted by the Bank of America research team found that 58% of the global fund managers believe that global equities are now in a bull market. This percentage is materially higher than the 46% in August 2020. The proportion of fund manager who believe it to be a bear market rally has reduced in September 2020 to 29% from 35% in August 2020. An overwhelming proportion of fund managers believe that "Long US Tech Stocks" is the most crowded trade. Though, the fund managers believing gold to be a crowded trade has reduced materially in September, as compared to August. "Short USD" trade is also seen gaining some popularity . Continuing with the theme, JP Morgan Research (as quoted by Niels Jensen of Absolute Partners), finds that S&P500 is now pricing in almost 0% probability of a recession in US; while 5yr US Treasuries are pricing in almost 100% probability of a recession. In his latest communicat...