Gorillas in the Room - 2
Last week I highlighted a few larger global trends that are not getting their due attention in the popular market narratives ( see Gorillas in the Room ) . Today, I want to draw the attention of the market participants towards a major India specific trend that shall have far reaching implications for the Indian economy and therefore Indian markets. “Favourable demographics” has been inarguably one of the major themes of the Indian economy and markets for the past two decades. The latest round of National Family Health Survey (5th Round - 2019-21) highlights that this theme might soon run out of currency and demographic dividend (income) might get replaced by demographic interest (expense). India to become older sooner than previously expected The total fertility rate (TFR) for India is already below the replacement threshold. TFR indicates the average number of children a woman is likely to bear during the age between 15 to 49 years. As per the global standards a TFR of 2.1 ...