Do it yourself

The recent discussion triggered by a viral video featuring Sanjeev Prasad , Co-Head – Institutional Equities at Kotak Institutional Equities, has reignited scrutiny of India’s IPO markets. Prasad highlighted that over the past five years, roughly 40% of IPO proceeds have gone to promoters and early investors, while only around 15% has been deployed toward capital expenditure—suggesting limited contribution to real economic asset creation. His statement resonated widely, reflecting growing investor unease over whether public equity markets are increasingly serving as exit avenues rather than engines of new growth. While the concern is valid and deserves examination, the broader picture is more nuanced than a headline statistic reveals. The Concern: Is the IPO market becoming exit driven? The disproportionate share of Offer for Sale (OFS) raises legitimate questions: ·          Are IPOs being priced and marketed primarily to facilitate stake...

In the past couple of days, some readers have uncharitably criticized me for being excessively paranoid; and some others have even accused me of fear mongering. It has been pointed out that I was writing the same stuff in the spring of 2022, while markets did much better in the subsequent two and a half years. Though I need not respond to every criticism, I would take this opportunity to reiterate my view that the economic conditions in India started to worsen from FY23. Now it is reflecting conspicuously in data. The cyclical improvement in corporate earnings post Covid stimulus and unexpected onslaught of ‘revenge consumption’, was erroneously assumed to be a structural and durable earnings cycle. These erroneous assumptions have actually resulted in a valuation bubble; bursting of which shall cause more pain than timely realization of error and course correction would have. Remember, over a longer period, stock prices do always converge with the economic realities. However, in the i...

  The traders and investors, who directly access the trading platforms of brokers, are reminded and forced to acknowledge, every time they log in to the trading system, “9 out of 10 individual traders in the Equity Futures and Options Segment, incurred net losses”. This is in fact one of the conclusions of a study conducted by the Securities and Exchange Board of India (SEBI) (published in January 2023). From my study of the Indian stock markets in the past three decades, I understand that this conclusion is no exaggeration. This state of affairs raises two pertinent questions: (i)        How sustainable a market is where 90% of participants are losing money consistently? (ii)       Does not this pose a material systemic risk for our markets, especially under the present circumstances where the global financial and geopolitical conditions are worsening every day, and the probability of an eight-sigma event like 9/11 attack and ...

  It was summer of the year 1997. The equity markets in India were struggling to come out of a four year long directionless phase. Though globally the technology sector had started to excite the investors, nothing much was happening in India. It was arguably the most dreary phase in the Indian stock markets in a decade. The National Stock Exchange used to follow a weekly settlement system in those days. Under the weekly settlement system, trades done during a week beginning every Wednesday and ending on the subsequent Tuesday were clubbed together and the net result of those trades was settled in the next three days. The net funds due were paid to the clearing corporation on Wednesday. The net sold securities were delivered on Thursday. The new fund receivable and net securities purchased were received on Friday. All deliveries were in physical paper form. A weekly settlement cycle ended on Tuesday, the 20 th of May 1997. The pay-in of funds due was made on Wednesday, the 21 s...

  A random walk through the settlement statistic of NSE for past two decade and half decades provided some interesting insights into the market evolution over past two decades. It is interesting to note the things that have changed and the things that have not. Regardless, it is comforting to note that Indian markets are maturing well and the systemic risk appears to have subsided materially. The best part was to observe that our markets have become more democratic with deeper and wider participation. (All data is sourced from www.nseindia.com) Indian market maturing well The latest bull market has shown that the Indian investors and traders are maturing very well. The tendency to recklessly over trade that was witnessed during dotcom bubble, and to some lesser extent during credit bubble of 2007-08, seems to have been reigned well now. To give it some perspective, at the peak of the dotcom bubble, the average daily turnover of NSE was close to 0.8% of the total market capi...

The principle and overriding function of the securities market regulator, The Securities and Exchange Board of India (SEBI) is to protect the interests of the investors in the securities market. The other functions, viz., orderly development and regulation of securities markets are secondary, in my view. However, there is overwhelming anecdotal evidence to indicate that the regulators have given precedence to market development and regulation over the principle objective of investor protection. There are many instances in past 3-4years alone to indicate this. In the episodes of IL&FS, Franklin Templeton, Yes Bank, Jet Airways, Karvy etc., the interests of the investors in these entities were compromised. Moreover, little efforts were made to ensure that prospective investors are given full disclosures about the risk and reward of investing in the securities of these entities. Recently, we have seen repeat of this tendency. On Monday, the 7 th June 2021, evening, DHFL informed st...

  Trends in cost of capital in India A recent survey done by the consulting firm Ernst & Young (EY) and National Stock Exchange (NSE) highlights some interesting data about the cost of capital of Indian businesses. “The Cost of Capital Survey” is an “attempt to understand the threshold cost of equity that India Inc. used for its capital allocation and investment decisions, and the process by which practicing finance professionals in the industry make capital costing decisions.” The key findings of the Survey are as follows: ·          India’s average cost of equity is ~14%. This has declined by ~100 basis points since our last cost of capital survey, over a period in which interest rates have declined by ~50 basis points. ·          Real estate, healthcare (including pharmaceuticals and life sciences) and renewables command the highest cost of equity, whereas chemicals, media and entertainme...

  A web series on the infamous Harshad Mehta scam of early 1990s seems to have triggered a debate on the present state of the financial regulation and risk management practices in India. The key point of interest is whether a scam similar to Harshad Mehta scam could recur! During late 1989-1992, a Mumbai (then Bombay) based stock broker Harshad Mehta used the inefficiency and lacunae in the banking and stock market systems to create massive pseudo credit. The credit so created was used to manipulate stocks prices, causing the first major bubble in Indian stock markets. This was the time when Indian economy was struggling with unprecedented balance of payment crisis, political uncertainty and higher energy prices due to war between Iraq and US (an ally of Kuwait) in the Persian gulf. Given the despondent economic situation huge short positions were built by traders in Indian equities. In the summer of 1991 the Congress government led by P. V. Narsimha Rao assumed office and unleas...

Yes Bank is a peculiar case study expanding across spheres of corporate governance; financial sector regulation; securities market regulation; investor behavior; crisis management; audit failure; risk management; decision making; and much more. The consequences are (i) investors' wealth has eroded materially and (ii) the interest of the entire financial system, including depositors, has been imperiled. By dithering on taking a prompt and appropriate action, the regulators are perhaps indicating that no lessons have been learned from the debacle of IL&FS and PMC. The worst, the bank continues to be a part of the benchmark Nifty50 and NiftyBank, forcing the passive investors to buy this poor quality stock. Besides, the equity shares of the bank continue to trade in the derivative segment encouraging speculative trades, especially by small investors in search of windfalls. Apparently, the bank has been violating the prudential lending norms with impunity. Bo...