Do it yourself

Fruit salad and helmets It was summer of 1992. The weathermen had announced the arrival of monsoon, a few days ago; though it had not rained even once. Weather was hot and humid – just the way mosquitoes, houseflies, fungi, and a variety of bacteria & viruses love it. People, especially children, were suffering from infections. The city administration was daily issuing half/full page newspaper advertisements cautioning people against disease outbreak, and guiding them to maintain personal hygiene, stay hydrated and avoid consuming street food, especially cut fruits. Several billboards and posters were also put up across the city. My office was located on Indraprastha Marg, one of the busiest streets in the city, just opposite an imposing building housing the Delhi Police headquarter (DPHQ). Around 100 meters away from DPHQ, there was a major bus stop (ITO). Several fruit chat vendors would sell cut fruits & vegetables like watermelon, pineapple, cucumber, coconut, etc. Th...

It seems like billions of gallons of water have flown down the Ganga since the first page of a newspaper made some gratifying headlines. It’s mostly the same disappointing narrative every morning. The positive news, if any, comes mostly in the form of government claims, which I find hard to accept on their face value. Yesterday (Tuesday, 12 July 2023) was apparently one of the usual days. The newspapers were full of disappointing news relating to accidents, crimes, disasters, and platitudes. However, I found five headlines which appeared particularly alarming. These headlines highlight apathy, inconsistency, and incompetence of policymakers. While it may not be a revelation to anyone; what amazes me is the steadfast refusal of a majority of newspaper readers to question the otherwise claims of the government. As an investor, I find it critical to take note of these headlines, because these underline the risks to the India Story, which is gaining currency again. Hill states devast...

FY23 sales highest ever, PVs lead, 2W lag In FY23, the sales of passenger vehicles in India seems to have reached an all-time high of 3.9mn units, recovering fully from the Covid induced slow down in the previous two financial years. In the next three years the sale of passenger vehicles in India is estimated to cross half a million mark. Two-wheeler and commercial vehicle sales have been slow to recover. These are expected to reach their all-time high levels in FY24e. Overall, 21.4million units of automobiles are expected to have been sold in FY23. The number is expected to increase to 24.7mn in FY24e and 28.7mn in FY25, registering an annual growth rate of over 15%. Besides local sales, Indian manufacturers exported about 3.7mn units of two wheelers and about one million units of other vehicles to other countries in FY23. Government pushing for faster adoption of EVs The government has identified automobile carbon emission as one of the primary sources of air pollution in Ind...

The opening sequence of the classic Ron Livingston starer “Office Space” (1999, Mike Judge), succinctly depicts the popular saying – “the other queue always moves faster”. I always remember this sequence when I see motorists trying a variety of tricks to change lanes at toll plazas on Indian highways. The drivers display daring skills to exit lanes, make lateral moves towards other lanes, mostly blocking the movement in both the lanes and causing an instant commotion – honking and showering of expletives. The show is quite entertaining, if you are not in a rush; else it is annoying and dismaying at the same time. As a regular driver on the highways and expressways, I can vouch that the system of toll collection still needs tremendous improvement – both in terms of operations as well as the method. Inefficient operations and faulty methods have nullified significant part of the benefits of infrastructure upgrade and Fastag payments. Many highway users have also expressed their dissati...

Last week I travelled through three divisions of Western Uttar Pradesh and Garhwal division of Uttaranchal. The idea was to assess the current socio-economic conditions, especially in light of a deficient monsoon, inflation and accelerated public investment in infrastructure building. I may share some of the key take away as follows: Crop plentiful The crop, mainly sugarcane, appeared plentiful. The landscape was mostly lush green. However, many farmers suggested that they lost the investment in early sowing; and have again sown cash crops (vegetable etc.) after the late rains. These crops are also yielding much less as excess late rains have flooded the fields, particularly the smaller fields. Most of them are cautious about the rabi crop as the sowing for advance crop of potato is already delayed by 2-3weeks. However, if the current spell of rains ends in another week as forecasted, the rabi crop could be plentiful. Winter setting in early would also help rabi crops. Vehicle an...

The country is celebrating Amrut Kaal - the 75 th year of independence. The government has committed to make this year a watershed year in the history of independent India. The occasion is inevitably marked by the usual political bickering between the ruling party at the center and the principal national opposition party. The incumbent BJP is projecting that the Indian National Congress, which has been at the helm for a substantial part of these 75years, is primarily responsible for slower, unequal and misdirected growth and development of the country. It is also assuring the country that the incumbent government is not only undoing the mistakes of commission and omissions committed by the earlier governments and taking impactful corrective action; but also laying the foundation for a stronger, faster, equitable and well directed growth & development of the country. The party in opposition, Indian National Congress (INC), on the other hand is refuting these claims. INC is insi...

  The Capex conundrum One of the most praised features of the Union Budget for FY23 presented last week is the emphasis on capital expenditure. The government, industrialists, bankers and many market participants have highlighted that the sharp rise in allocation for capital expenditure in the budget shall catapult the economy into a higher growth orbit and accelerate the employment generation. Incidentally, the allocation for capital expenditure in the budget is also one of the most criticized items. Experts have highlighted that the higher allocation for capital expenditure in the budget is not only an optical illusion but may also be misdirected as it is mostly focused on the transportation sector and defense and completely ignores priority sectors like tourism, food processing, bio technology, higher education, sports & youth affairs, etc. The opaqueness in the matters of capital expenditure also raises doubts over the government's commitment to transparency in accounti...