Do it yourself

Last month, in one of my posts ( read here ), I mentioned that “From the events of the past few years, it is evident that the era of peace and global cooperation, which started in the aftermath of two devastating wars in the first half of the twentieth century and flourished after the end of the Cold War in the late 1980s, may be coming to an end. In my view, the year 2024 will see a new paradigm unfolding in global economic, political, and geopolitical spheres. The new paradigm which would take a couple of decades to manifest fully, may inter alia see multiple axes and alliances emerging in the global order, competing with each other for supremacy. Consequently, global trade may get fragmented into multiple trade blocs.” I also expressed a view that “The trend in the financialization of economies may reverse. Physical resource ownership and localized manufacturing may become the primary focus again.” A team of the International Monetary Fund (IMF) analyzed the economic impact of t...

I have been tracking the news flow and experts’ opinions regarding the developments in global commodities markets for the past couple of years. Of course, I am a novice in matters of global economics, trade, and finance; but the commodities markets are particularly something I could never understand. From my elementary understanding of economics and human behavior, I understand that aging demography, deeper & wider penetration of dematerialization & digitalization in human lives, rising awareness about climate change, and deteriorating growth potential of the developed economies, and perhaps China also, definitely do not augur well for the commodities’ demand in the long term (10-15yrs). However, the opinion of experts is overwhelmingly in favor of a bull market in commodities in the short term (2-5yrs). The key arguments presented by experts in favor of a bull market in commodities could be summarized as follows: (a)    Energy prices have corrected back to the p...

 Struggle with nature has been an integral part of the evolution of homo sapiens. The Man has not only braved the inclement natural conditions for a million year, but also emerged victorious under most circumstances. They have crossed oceans; scaled mountain peaks; tamed raging rivers; built oases in deserts; braved extreme cold at the poles and extreme heat at the equator; and still survived and continue to evolve. Cockroaches are an insect group that is believed to have originated 300-350 million years ago. They have shown extreme tolerance for a variety of climate – from arctic cold to tropical heat, and thrived. The common saying is that only the human race and cockroaches may manage to survive an Armageddon due to their adaptability and strong survival instincts. Many young investors may not have heard the term “peak oil”. This term was popular till the global financial crisis in the later part of the first decade of this century. The term was essentially used to denote ...