Showing posts with label Inaction. Show all posts
Showing posts with label Inaction. Show all posts

Tuesday, March 24, 2020

Some random thoughts

Making IBC little more pragmatic
Last week while on a visit to Mumbai, I noticed few aircrafts belonging to the now defunct Jet Airways parked on the airport. The aircrafts had gathered lot of dust and pigeon crap. I believe it's more than a year since these aircrafts must have been parked there. The owner/lessee of these aircraft owes billions of rupees to various lenders and operational creditors. The company is undergoing the bankruptcy proceedings and apparently so far no buyer has shown any interest in acquiring the company.
I wonder, why the bankruptcy procedure be made little pragmatic! I feel one of the key purposes of the bankruptcy process must be to minimize the losses to the lenders and operational creditors. If these aircrafts that are lying idle were leased to other airlines till the completion of IBC process, at least some money could have been recovered. Or at least, Jet Airways could have been saved from incurring parking charges (which it can never pay), and machines could have been saved from major overhaul cost due to lying idle (again that cannot be paid by the Jet Airways).
A bureaucrat obviously will never take any initiative in this direction, as it would increase his workload and responsibility. The politicians who travel everyday and see these aircrafts rusting and gathering dust could only take an initiative, as it may require some legislative changes also.
Government may have done a lot by not doing anything
Talking with a senior bureaucrat last week I realized the importance of sophistry in running the government. To my inquisition about the below par performance of the Make in India program, his answer was the best example of sophistry.
He said, "the government went slow on Make in India program. We were never comfortable about creating large capacities using borrowed money to increase our integration to the global supply chain in these uncertain times. Our strategy of going slow has bore brilliant fruits. Imagine, if we integrated into global supply chain like China, and all those factories were shut down due to global demand collapse. All of these would have defaulted on their loans, totally crushing our financial system."
After the God explaining that "sometime inaction is the most appropriate action", this is perhaps the best explanation I have heard.
Clamor for rate cut may be misplaced
A lot of market experts have expressed their anguish over RBI not making an "emergency rate cut". Unfortunately, they are seeking rate cut to comfort the financial markets and not the economy. Their complaint is that stock markets are sliding fast and RBI is doing nothing to stop the slide, even though it has many bullets preserved in its barrel.
These experts appear totally oblivious to the fact that dramatic cuts by some large central banks have done almost nothing to arrest the market slide.
Even, from the real economy view market, a rate cut now would have yielded miniscule results. The capacity utilization levels are running persistently low and demand for new investment is low; the banks and NBFCs are mostly risk averse and not willing to lend; the system is liquidity surplus; RBI is providing 3yr funds at 5.15% and buying bonds to ease the pressure on longer maturities. A rate cut now may only disturb the equilibrium in currency market. I would rather like RBI to cut substantially when things stabilize a bit and banks are willing to take risk. For now, the rate cut would comfort stock markets for 2hours or may be less than that.