Showing posts with label ISRO. Show all posts
Showing posts with label ISRO. Show all posts

Thursday, August 31, 2023

Over the moon

It was the spring of the year 2006. Prime Minister Manmohan Singh and President of the United States George W. Bush (Jr.) signed a historic civil nuclear cooperation deal on 06 March 2006 at New Delhi. The markets were obviously very excited about this new chapter in the strategic relationship between the two largest democracies in the world. The benchmark Nifty would rise ~17% (3185-3750) within 10 weeks of signing the deal. However, Nifty fell 30% (3750-2647) in the following five weeks as the deal faced strong opposition from the left parties that were part of the ruling UPA-1 alliance, as well as the opposition parties like right-wing BJP, etc. Eventually, the deal was signed in August 2007, after the prime minister won a no-confidence motion in the parliament on this issue.

After the deal was signed, the government fixed a target to install 20GW of nuclear power generation capacity in India by the year 2018. Presently, there are 22 nuclear reactors operating in India with a total power generation capacity of 6.8GW. Interestingly, only 3 reactors (2.2GW) have been added in the fifteen years after the civil nuclear deal with the US.

The pertinent point to note however is that the euphoria created by the ‘deal’ in the equity markets led to a hyperbolic rise in stock prices of many companies that were directly or remotely related to the construction of nuclear power plants. Most of these stocks corrected sharply in the following years, as none of them got the business the market was anticipating.

The market reaction to the successful launch of India’s latest moon mission is giving me a sense of déjà vu. Many random stocks that have some remote connection with ISRO projects have run up 20% to 80%. A project that costs under US$100m, including wages, IPR, and logistics costs, has seen the market capitalization of vendors rise by over US$10bn. The analysts and traders have started building an astronomical rise in their order books and profitability. The arguments are running wild. For example, a prominent market participant advanced a theory that global space agencies will now engage Indian vendors who have demonstrated good quality products at very economical costs.

I am sure most Indian vendors engaged by ISRO are indubitably very competitive in terms of quality and costs. The questions however are:

·         How many of these companies have a scalable business? Would additional capex requirements merely for space programs justify their current valuations?

·         Whether 500 space missions by ISRO and other space agencies that would like to source material from India, in the next 10 years yield enough profit to justify the current valuations of most of these companies? Remember, countries like Russia and China usually do not source material from outside for their space missions. Private agencies operating space missions, like Elon Musk’s SpaceX, are very few and may not justify the revenue and profitability assumptions being made by the market participants.

Space is a very big and lucrative business opportunity. It is therefore major story for investment. However, investors who want to make money must be focused on technology innovators, IPR holders who supply mission critical equipment. Investing in steel, nut bolts, plastic pipes, fuel tanks, and fan blade suppliers could lead you only in one direction - that is down. It would, therefore, be advisable that investors who are over the moon, return to the Earth and do some basic numbers.

Wednesday, June 1, 2022

Harbingers of Amrut Kaal

The country is celebrating Amrut Kaal - the 75th year of independence. The government has committed to make this year a watershed year in the history of independent India. The occasion is inevitably marked by the usual political bickering between the ruling party at the center and the principal national opposition party.

The incumbent BJP is projecting that the Indian National Congress, which has been at the helm for a substantial part of these 75years, is primarily responsible for slower, unequal and misdirected growth and development of the country. It is also assuring the country that the incumbent government is not only undoing the mistakes of commission and omissions committed by the earlier governments and taking impactful corrective action; but also laying the foundation for a stronger, faster, equitable and well directed growth & development of the country.

The party in opposition, Indian National Congress (INC), on the other hand is refuting these claims. INC is insisting that it was their leadership that built a strong institutional framework that laid the foundation for a stronger, egalitarian and harmonious India.

I am sure both the parties would have strong arguments to support their respective contentions and this game of political grandstanding may continue forever. Nonetheless, I find it pertinent to take note of the present strengths of Indian economy and society that could really lead the transformation of Indian economy into a middle class economy over the course of next couple of decades; and also the weaknesses that could thwart the process of process of faster and sustainable growth and development of the country.

In particular, I would like to highlight the following five factors that now form the core of India’s strategy to achieve the ambitious growth and development goals.

Digital identity for all the citizens (Aadhar enabled by UIDAI)

UIDAI (Aadhar) is widely acknowledged as one of the most sophisticated and pervasive digital identification programs in the world. The program provided a digital identity to more than 1.31 billion citizens of India. This identity now forms the core of the financial inclusion and social security system in India, eliminating the leakages, middlemen and inefficiencies of the system. Aadhar also forms the core of the financial services, telecom and social sector services like health  and education.

The UIDAI model has also been adopted to provide digital identity to all corporate entities, corporate directors, taxable properties, to facilitate faster identification & transactions; and minimize the probability of frauds.

The services like DigiLocker - a free digital storage space for documents available to all citizens – are also primarily based on Aadhar authentication services.

UIDAI was conceived and set up in 2009 by the then UPA government under the ages of the Planning Commission. It was given a statutory status by the incumbent NDA government in 2016.

Digital payment ecosystem (UPI enabled by NPCI)

The RBI founded the National Payments Corporation of India (as a not for profit company) in 2008 to operate retail payments and settlement systems in India. The NPCI developed a Unified Payments Interface (UPI) to facilitate instant digital settlement of interbank peer to peer (P2P) and Person to Merchant (P2M) payments. UPI is an Aadhar enabled mobile based interface, available for free to all the citizens and merchants in India. NPCI also developed the BHIM mobile App and Bharat Bill payment system.

This makes the Indian digital payment infrastructure, one of the best in the world. Millions of small and marginal merchants make billions of UPI transactions, to transform the Indian economy from a cash driven economy to a digital banking society.

NPCI established the National Automated Clearing House (NACH) to integrate all regional electronic clearing services into one national payment system.

NPCI has also enabled a national electronic toll collection through FASTag; National Financial Switch (Network of shared ATMs); RuPay Card, IMPS and Bharat QR etc.,

NPCI was conceived and established in 2008 during the UPA government. However it has taken a lot of new initiatives under the incumbent NDA government.

Expansion and modernization of highways

The Congress government led by P. V. Narasimha Rao, operationalized National Highways Authority of India (NHAI) as an autonomous agency in 1995 to build and manage the network of national highways in India.

The NDA-1 government led by A. B. Vajpayee assigned the task of implementing the National Highways Development Project (NHDP) to NHAI in 2000. NHAI has undertaken and executed several key projects to remarkably improve the interstate surface transport ecosystem in the country. Golden Quadrilateral (20012012), an ambitious project of NHAI under NHDP has become the backbone of national trade & commerce. Besides, NHAI has commissioned North South and East West corridor projects to connect major Indian cities.

NHAI model has inspired most state governments to undertake major highway and express projects in public and private sector to improve road infrastructure and intra state and interstate connectivity.

Best standards in defense and space technology

Indian Space Research Organization (ISRO, established 1969) and Defense Research and Development Organization (DRDO, established 1958) have been two core institutions to make India a major player in the global space and defense technology arena.

ISRO has placed India in the top 5 countries in terms of space capabilities. The commercial satellite launch capabilities of ISRO are now recognized world over. The indigenous GPS tracking system GAGAN, developed by ISRO, has put India in the global elite club.

DRDO has developed a potent nuclear deterrent to safeguard geopolitical interests of India, which is surrounded by rather hostile neighbors. DRDO is a key functionary in the plan to make India self-reliant in defense production and technology. DRDO has also done remarkable development work in the field of chemical engineering and medical science.

BrahMos, developed jointly by DRDO and Mashinostroyeniya of Russia, is the fastest supersonic cruise missile in the world. A hypersonic version of the missile is also under development.

BrahMos Aerospace, the JV between DRDO and Mashinostroyeniya, was formed in 1998. It tested an Air-launched variant of BrahMos in 2012; which was inducted in service in 2019. In 2016 India became a member of the Missile Technology Control Regime(MTCR), enabling India to develop missiles jointly with other members.

We may see India becoming a notable exporter of missiles and missile technology in future.

Democratization of digital commerce (ONDC)

The Department for Promotion of Industry and Internal Trade (DPIIT), of Government of India has recently formed a Not for Profit company named Open Network for Digital Commerce (ONDC).

ONDC shall be developing an open network for e-commerce in India. It is expected to be an UPI equivalent for digital commerce. The idea is to end the monopoly and manipulative practices of some large ecommerce players and democratize the ecommerce market by providing an equal access to all the participants. Like what UPI did with the payments, ONDC could revolutionize the digital commerce market in India, providing huge impetus to growth.

ONDC shall lead to democratization, decentralization, digitalization and standardization of the entire digital commerce value chain, increasing the efficiency and access manifold.

MNREGA (started in 2009) also deserves special mention in this context. The rural employment scheme has provided one of the best templates for implementing social security and uniform basic income (UBI) in the country. It is widely recognized that this program has saved millions of families in distress, especially during the periods of crisis such as drought, pandemic, cyclone etc. In the past one decade, the program has been admirably used to build rural assets like roads, water bodies, schools, health centers, etc.

About the constraints, I shall discuss in a later post.