Dark clouds gathering on the horizon – 2
Continuing from yesterday...( see here ) Rising uncertainties In the past one year, global economic uncertainties have intensified, contributing to a marked slowdown in growth projections—from around 3.2% in 2024 to 2.3–3.0% in 2025—amid persistent disruptions that have eroded investor confidence and trade flows. This volatility stems from a confluence of interconnected factors, including policy unpredictability, deteriorating fiscal positions worldwide, and escalating geopolitical tensions, which collectively amplify risks of financial instability and reduced productivity. Economic policy uncertainty Economic policy uncertainty (EPU) in the US has surged to levels roughly double its long-term average since 2008, exacerbated by the 2024 presidential election and subsequent shifts toward looser regulation, tax cuts, and aggressive tariffs. These US-centric changes have spiked trade policy uncertainty to record highs in early 2025, prompting front-loaded imports and marke...