Expect a risk rally, after a long pause
In the past couple of months, since the completion of the US presidential elections, most of the global analysis (financial, geopolitical, economic, international relations, etc.) has been revolving around the likely policy stance of the Trump 2.0 administration. Various scenarios have been built based on extrapolating his election speeches and other utterances made during Trump’s election campaign. Most of these analyses could be speculative, since (i) these is not based on the policy actions pursued during the first presidential term of Trump, assuming this time it is entirely different; (ii) these assume a significant delivery on the election promises, with no substantive evidence to support such assumptions; and (iii) these not only ignore the relatively recent experiences of India (Achee Din-2014), the UK (New Deal – Brexit), but also overlook the notable failed promises of the past US presidents. To name a few, Woodrow Wilson (1916) - “He kept us out of war”; Jimmy Carter (1977...