“Peak coal” – not yet
The benchmark Newcastle thermal coal future prices have fallen to US$131/ton, the lowest price since June 2021. Though the current prices are down over 70% from the highs witnessed in September 2022; these are still materially higher from the pre covid 10yr average of close to US85/ton. The sharp spike witnessed in the past couple of years was initially due to logistic constraints due to Covid-19 and was further exacerbated by the geopolitical issues presented by Russian invasion of Ukraine in early 2022. NATO’s economic sanctions on Russia, the single largest supplier of energy to Europe, resulted in a rush to secure energy supplies from the alternative sources, catapulting the prices of coal and natural gas, most common fuels used for power generation, sky high. Now, since the supplies from other large coal producers, e.g, Indonesia, Australia and the US have improved materially, and European countries have built strong reserves, it is likely that the coal prices may remain stable ...