2024: Market Outlook and Strategy
In my view, the stock market outlook in India, in the short term of one year, is a function of the following seven factors: Macroeconomic environment Global markets and flows Technical positioning Corporate earnings and valuations Return profile and prospects for alternative assets like gold, real estate, fixed income etc. Greed and fear equilibrium Perception of the political establishment The outlook for these seven factors for the next twelve months is as follows, in my view— Macroeconomic environment – Neutral My outlook for the likely macroeconomic environment in 2024 is as follows: (a) Inflation: Consumer inflation may average well within the RBI tolerance band of 4% to 6%. However, food inflation may continue to be erratic and cause occasional violations of the upper range. (b) Fiscal Deficit: The fiscal situation of the cent...