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 The Indian equities performed decently in 2021. Investors would normally have nothing to complain about the returns on their equity portfolios. ·          The benchmark Nifty is up ~21% YTD2021. It is 6 th consecutive year of positive return on Nifty. Nifty has now returned positive return in 9 out of past 10years (2012-2021). ·          Nifty has averaged 15881 (based on daily closings) in 2021, which is 44% higher than the same average for 2020. Based on change in average, this is best performance since 47% gain in 2006; implying strong returns for SIP investors. ·          For long term buy and hold investors, five year rolling CAGR in 2021 is ~15.7%, which is best performance since 2013. Five year absolute Nifty return in 2021 is ~107%, also highest since 2013. ·          The market returns were fairly broad ba...

  Wishing all readers a joyous New Year,  and a brilliant 2021 ahead.  Stay Healthy, Stay Blessed.   Top performers of 2020 In this last post of 2020, I would like to pay my tributes to those, who in my view are top performers of the year. Many readers may find it deeply personal view, totally unrelated to the investment strategy. However, I keep these at the core of my investment strategy. Without these performers, making any case for investing in Indian equities would be tough for me. Migrant Laborers One section of the population that has been hit the hardest by the pandemic is migrant laborers. These people mostly sustain on daily wages and have negligible savings. On announcement of lockdown, these people lost their livelihood, shelter and savings in no time. The uncertainty over resumption of normal life forced them to leave “unaffordable” cities and return to their villages. They got almost no support from the baffled and paranoid administration or industry. N...

2021 – Market Outlook and Investment Strategy The 2020th year of Christ is ending on a mixed note. Economically, socially & politically - the environment is filled with a myriad of emotions. There is  hope and anticipation  of victory over pandemic and life returning to normal in 2021. Each piece of improvement in the economic data and healthcare statistics brings relief and stokes optimism. The wealth effect created due to higher asset prices is comforting people in more than one ways. The technological advancement and digitalization has made tremendous progress in past 12 months. The global effort towards climate change appears more promising than ever. There is  fear  of new variants of Covid-19 virus disrupting the recovery effort and bringing the life to a standstill gain. There is widespread distress caused by the health and economic shock of pandemic. The people in numerous countries are unrestful as they resist increased state surveillance and struggle to...

 A literal interpretation of the latest statistics would indicate that Indian economy is passing through a recession and faces a specter of stagflation. A young demography like India can certainly not afford this condition. The government officials have termed the recession as a “technical” one, induced temporarily by the total lockdown imposed in the wake of the outbreak of Covid-19 pandemic. The economic managers of the government have also vehemently denied any possibility of Indian economy slipping into a stagflationary trap. In my view, however, this entire discussion based on official statistics might be “technical” in nature. Wandering through the streets of large cities and fields in the hinterlands over past few months, and interacting with people from various strata of the society, I am convinced that more than two third of Indian population may already be trapped in the stagflationary conditions, with their real income stagnant or declining over past few years and es...