Do it yourself

These comments read with the minutes of the last meeting of the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) provide adequate ground to believe that—

(i)      The current rate cycle has peaked out; and the next policy move will be a rate cut.

(ii)     The policymakers are confident the spike in inflation that occurred in the aftermath of Covid-19 pandemic (massive cash stimulus fueling demand and logistic challenges causing break in global supply chains) has been successfully tamed.

(iii)   The economy is no longer overheated as the pandemic stimuli have been gradually withdrawn, the job market has cooled down, and commodity prices are behaving normally.

Though Mr. Powell did not make it clear that the FOMC will cut rate in the next meeting scheduled to be held on 17-18^h September 2024; the market consensus is assuming it to be a certainty. The debate is now circling around how aggressive the Fed could be in their pursuit of policy easing. Though, Mr. Powell emphasized that the rate cut will be data driven, a majority of market participants are expecting a 25bps cut each on 18^th September, 7^th November and 18 December. Some aggressive estimates are building 50bps cut each in September and December.

I am not competent to comment on the dynamics of the US monetary policy and its implications for the global economy and markets. My concern at this time is limited to how does the likely change in the Fed’s policy stance affects my tine portfolio of investments, if at all.

In this context I note that—

·            In its last meeting, the Monetary Policy Committee of the RBI retained its policy stance of withdrawal of accommodation and maintained the status quo on policy rates by a four to two majority vote.

One of the dissenting members, emphasized that “Global uncertainties continue. The Fed, in indicating a cut in its September meeting, pointed out that since monetary policy acts with a lag they can't afford to wait until they reach their inflation target before cutting. That lag may be responsible for the sharply adverse August jobs report that has stoked recession fears and created market volatility. That a series of small signals were ignored, may have led to a critical large one. Monetary policy needs to act well in time. Spillovers led the global manufacturing PMI into contraction zone in July at 49.7.” (See here)

The other dissenting member was even forceful in his dissent, stressing, “For the last several meetings, I have been expressing concerns about the unacceptable growth sacrifice induced by a monetary policy that is excessively restrictive. The majority of the MPC however do not share this concern, perhaps because they think that the Indian economy is already growing at close to its potential growth rate. I think that such a view reflects (a) an unwarranted pessimism about the growth potential of the economy and (b) an overly sanguine expectation about growth in ensuing quarters. I disagree with both prongs of this assessment.” (See here)

This clearly highlights that despite being warned of the perils of running behind the curve and impairing the growth potential, the MPC decided to retain its stance. Maybe the RBI is not as sanguine about the price stability and growth potential as some of the members of the MPC.

·            The fourteen-month gap (July 2023 to September 2024) between the Fed pause and the first cut would be the second longest in the past five decades. The markets have been anticipating a Fed rate cut for almost a year now.

In this period, the stock markets, both the US and the Indian, have not witnessed any meaningful correction and are already at an all time high level. The question is whether the anticipated rate cut would provide immediate impetus to the markets; or the markets will be worried about further deterioration in economic growth.

It is pertinent to note that empirical evidence suggests that in the past three rate cycles, the US market has fallen 12 to 50% during the Fed rate cuts.

·         The governments in the US and India are not in a position to back up the monetary policy easing with fiscal stimuli.

Under the circumstances, for now I am more inclined to assume that:

·         It is not certain that the RBI will immediately follow the US Fed in cutting rates, unless strong evidence of growth collapsing emerges. Rise in the yield differential may attract stronger flows and support USDINR and markets.

·         A weaker USD may support commodity prices

·         A panic cut by RBI on the other hand may adversely affect the margins of banks (loans get repriced immediately while deposits take longer; CD ratio faces further pressure); and also affect the overall sentiments.

·         The earnings momentum appears to have slowed down in 1QFY25. A sharp cut by RBI might arrest the slowdown in earnings momentum; and also help higher equity valuations to sustain.

·         Negative real rates may adversely affect savers (consumption) and support capex.

I will review my portfolio in accordance with these assumptions in the next review. For now, I am just staying put.