Do it yourself

The macro environment in India looks stable and resilient, despite the scare of war and trade uncertainties. The south-west monsoon has started on a buoyant note, and IMD reconfirmed its forecast of above normal (106% of LPA) for the current season. Enhanced dividend payout by the RBI has lessened fiscal slippage concerns. Concerted efforts by the RBI to improve system liquidity have also yielded positive results. Fiscal strength, benign inflation outlook, and improved liquidity have resulted in the benchmark 10yr bond yields falling to the lowest level since 2021; reversal in FPI flows since March 2025; stability in currency and improved growth outlook. Despite notable stability there are few areas of concern that investors should be mindful of. In particular, I shall be watching the development of external situations closely. External situation - not worrying presently, but could deteriorate India's external sector has shown resilience in recent years, but there are signs o...

The 2025 season of the Indian Premier League (IPL) has entered the final phase. Four teams – Gujarat Titans, Punjab Kings, Royal Challengers Bengaluru and Mumbai Indians, shall now play for the coveted trophy. This session of the IPL has some valuable lessons for investors, in my view. In particular, I found the following most interesting. ·          Two out of the top four teams have never won the IPL trophy previously. Mumbai Indians, has won it five times (2013, 2015, 2017, 2019, 2020), while Gujarat Titans won it once (2022). Five-time winner Chennai Super Kings (CSK) finished the 2025 season at the bottom of the league table. Three-time winner Kolkata Knight Riders ended at 8 th place. ·          Several of the most successful players of the previous two seasons were either retained or bought at aggressive prices in 2025. Many of these players failed to perform in the current season. Some of...

The script in the US is playing mostly on the expected lines (see   here   and   here ). Department of Government Efficiency (DOGE) – crash landing Department of Government Efficiency (DOGE) is apparently on its way to crash land, with the pilot (Elon Musk) ejecting himself out shortly after taking off. DOGE’s actions have faced multiple lawsuits, with critics arguing that Musk and his team have violated federal laws, union agreements, and civil service protections. A federal judge halted parts of USAID’s shutdown, and courts have restricted DOGE’s access to payment systems. Despite Musk’s goal to cut $2 trillion from the federal budget, 2025 spending is slightly up from 2024, per Brookings Institution data. Mandatory spending (e.g., Social Security, Medicare) limits achievable cuts. Over two million federal employees were offered buyout deals, with some agencies facing mass layoffs. However, some fired staff have been rehired, indicating implementation challenges. Though...

The International Monetary Fund (IMF) and the World Bank designed the Debt Sustainability Framework (DSF), to assess and manage the debt sustainability of low-income countries (LICs). DSF is a key tool in the overall global financial architecture. It analyzes a country's indebtedness and its vulnerability to shocks through regular analysis of a country's present and projected (over the next 10 years) debt burden. The analysis involves conventional solvency analysis (Debt to GDP, Debt to Export, Debt service ratio, fiscal balance, etc.) and stress testing for potential crisis situations. The idea is to detect potential debt crises early and implement appropriate preventive actions. DSF, inter alia, guides— (i)      borrowing decisions of LICs by assessing their financing needs and repaying abilities; (ii)     LICs how to maintain a balance between their development goals and financial stability; (iii)    the process of identifying countries un...

After the recent geopolitical escalation between India and Pakistan, the president of the United States (POTUS), Donald J. Trump, has become one of the most hated personalities amongst Indian households. His babbling about facilitating a truce between two neighbors, offering trade deals as incentive, may not have gone well with most Indians; even though the Indian government has officially denied any role of the POTUS and his administration in negotiation with Pakistan. This is perhaps one of the reasons the market discourse has mostly ignored “the strategic economic partnership” signed between U.S. President Donald Trump and Saudi Arabia’s Crown Prince Mohammed bin Salman, last week. In my view, this renewed strength in the Arab-US relations is very significant, not only for the US economy, but also for a much wider global economic context. Although, it might be speculative on my part, nonetheless I believe that this “strategic economic partnership” deal could potentially result in— (...

  South Block’s Doctrine, North Block’s Dilemma Past four weeks have marked a watershed in the geopolitics of South Asia. A terrorist attack in Pahalgam (J&K, India) on 22 nd April 2025, resulted in the brutal killing of 26 tourists (25 Indian and 1 Nepalese). The terrorists were believed to be from groups actively supported by the Government/Army establishment of Pakistan; and operating from the Pakistan Occupied Jammu & Kashmir (PoJK) and Pakistan. The Government of India responded to the attack by (i) taking several diplomatic and economic measures against Pakistan over the next couple of weeks, and (ii) targeting terror infrastructure in PoJK and Pakistan, on 7 th may 2025, reportedly killing 70-100 terrorists and their allies. A number of terrorist training camps and hideouts were also destroyed in the targeted precision airstrikes by the Indian Airforce (IAF). The operation was code named “Operation Sindoor”. Pakistan escalated the conflict by launching artill...

Micro, small and medium size enterprises (MSME) have been widely recognized as the core of India’s development plan. MSME are not only critical from their economic importance, but are also drivers of social development. MSMEs generate large employment; help in managing regional imbalances; help in bridging income and wealth inequalities; and most importantly, enable the large enterprises to attain competitive scale and efficiency. MSMEs contribute 30.1% to India’s Gross Value Added and 45.79% to exports ( ₹ 12.39 lakh crore in 2024-25). Unfortunately, in the past 10 years, especially in the wake of demonetization, GST implementation and Covid-19 pandemic, India’s MSME sector has faced serious challenges to growth. The NITI Aayog in a recent report, “Enhancing Competitiveness of MSMEs in India, ” prepared in collaboration with the Institute for Competitiveness, has provided a strategic roadmap to strengthen India’s MSME sector. The report identifies key challenges and proposes r...

A few years ago, I had to make a visit to a local garbage dump site in Delhi. My wife had lost an earring, which she thought could have been dumped there with the daily kitchen waste. The visit was a revelation for me as it introduced me to a significant phenomenon of our society. A casual discussion with the rag pickers skimming the household garbage to pick pieces of paper, plastic and metal, etc. was quite intriguing. Out of seven people diligently scanning the nauseating dump, some were children under the age of 14, including girls, and many were youth in the age bracket of 19-27. Incidentally, there was a police PCR vehicle standing just 10mtr from the site. The police personnel on petrol duty were blissfully unaware of the laws relating to right to education, child labor, dumping of garbage in open areas etc. On being asked why they chose to do this menial, risky (health wise) and hideous job, when they have relatively decent options driving an e-rickshaw, working at a nearby...

The weather has changed suddenly. What was dark and grim on Friday evening, became bright and pleasant on Monday morning. ·          India and Pakistan took several steps back from their respective aggressive positions over the weekend. The entire Indian leadership greeted the world on the Birth Anniversary of Lord Buddha, showing commitment to his doctrine of non-violence, tolerance and empathy. ·          The Indian Meteorological Department (IMD) assured that the south west monsoon is on track to enter Kerala coast five days before the scheduled date. ·          Japanese financial giant Sumitomo Mitsui Banking Corp. announced acquisition of 20% stake in Yes Bank, marking one of the most successful revivals of a troubled entity since acquisition of the government managed deal of Satyam Computers by Tech Mahindra. ·        ...