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Showing posts from August, 2021

Rewriting History

Once there was a tyrant feudal lord. He would oppress his subjects using all the means within his power. He would often torture them; force them serve to his cause; plunder their assets; abuse their women and children; violate their traditions and culture and exploit their lands to his benefit. Once he learnt that one of the traders in his village posses large amount of gold and precious stones. He immediately summoned the trader to his palace and ordered him to surrender all his wealth to his Lordship. The trader refused to obey the orders arguing that the wealth is the reward of the hard work done by him and his ancestors, and only his children have the right to own it. The Lord got furious and ordered his muscleman to beat the trader black & blue and lock him in the basement. The musclemen would beat the trader everyday but he would not tell them where his treasure is hidden. To make sure that the trader does not die before disclosing the location of his treasure, the Lord's...

No flirting, just marry the “Risk”

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The benchmark equity indices in many global markets are presently positioned close to their all-time high levels. The equity shares of new age companies, with relatively untested business models, are commanding prices, which could be termed “obnoxious” from the view point of conventional valuation methods. The global debt yields are staying obdurately low, despite higher inflationary expectations and liquidity contraction talks. The market value of cryptocurrencies, one of the youngest asset classes, is also more than US$2trn. In these circumstances, “Risk” is naturally the most talked about, and understandably the most ignored, term in the financial markets. All market experts are highlighting the urgent need to manage “Risk” for investors. Investors’ survey on understanding of Risk A quick survey of household investors’ perception about the “Risk”, and their methods of managing “Risk”, however highlights that “Risk” may actually be one of the least understood, though most talke...

The Idea of Freedom

 As we celebrate the 74 th anniversary of our independence from the British rule, we appear to be even more resolute in our persistence to deny some of the unpleasant facts, that allowed Europeans to conquer and brutalize ancient and wealthy civilizations, such as ours. We refuse to accept the answers and explanations to the uncomfortable questions, that are relevant today, more than ever. For example, consider the following: 1.          How did Europeans, whom we believed to be primitive, become so powerful in the Middle Ages, especially 14 th and 15 th century, that they were able to conquer and enslave ancient civilization which had mastered art, science, mathematics, and philosophy? Most of us refuse to acknowledge, it was the Renaissance, total break from the past dogmas and acceptance of a new paradigm, that helped Europeans reinvent themselves as a great political, economic, and scientific power that shall rule the world for man...

Is reflation trade wobbling?

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In past couple of weeks, some news items, and market & economic trends have attracted my attention. All these news items & trends somehow reflect on the reflation trade that has dominated the global markets for past few months. The rise in commodity prices in past one year is seen mostly a function of a combination of demand and supply side factors. Post global financial crisis (GFC 2008) the investment in new capacities had slowed down considerably. The economic lockdown due to outbreak of pandemic further curtailed the supply of many industrial commodities. The logjam at Suez Canal further impacted the supply chain. The supply of commodities obviously could not match the recovery in economic activity as the economies began to open up. The trillions of dollars in pandemic related stimulus further boosted the demand, as all three activities, viz., consumption, capex and trading got boost from worldwide stimulus. The US government’s plan to invest US$1trn in building nation’...

75th Independence day – Jingoistic nationalism vs self-reliance

On the eve of 75 th Independence Day when you buy a plastic Tricolour from a young child on the traffic signal, would you (a) pause to think that this flag may be of Chinese origin, (b) buy with the idea of helping the poor child; or (c) just buy to demonstrate your feeling of patriotism? In the post-independence period, the Indian economy has been persistently suffering from a variety of deficits. Though in the financial market parlance the twin economic deficits, viz., current account deficit and fiscal deficit, have been discussed most, these could be the least of worries for Indian economy in the current circumstances. Some of the most worrisome deficits, in my view, include: ·          Growth capital deficit ·          Advanced technology deficit ·          Skill deficit ·          Trust deficit ·   ...

Medals & Money: Politics and Philosophy of Sports

Tokyo2020 has been the best Olympic for India, in terms of Medals won. Prior to this we won 6 medals (2 Silver and 4 bronze) in London2012. This performance has naturally brought cheers to 1.4billion people mostly starved of good news. Each victory and loss has been celebrated with a sense of pride. The fact that a large number of our Olympic participants belong to the underprivileged sections of the society makes it even more special. The stories of these sportspersons and their families’ struggle, grit, and perseverance are heartwarming and highly motivating. These stories are much more valuable than the medals won. The fact that more and more Indian sportspersons are now reaching closer to medal is reassuring. Of course we will win many more medals in years come. The 27yr old Australian swimmer Emma McKeon has won seven medals (4 Gold and 3 Bronze) at the Tokyo Olympic 2020. Overall, she has won eleven Olympic medals (5 Gold, 2 Silver and 4 Bronze). In comparison, India has ...