What if?

Polling for the fourth phase of the 18^th general elections ended yesterday. Electorate from 380 Lok Sabha constituencies have exercised franchise to elect their national representatives. Over the next three weeks, eight states (full or partial), NCT of Delhi, and four union territories will vote in three phases. With 70% voting already over, a fair estimate of the national trends could be made by the experts.

Since the Election Commission of India (ECI) does not permit the publication or communication of the results in any other form of Exit Polls conducted by various agencies until the completion of voting for all seats, we do not have any expert opinion available about the likely outcome of the ongoing elections. However, a variety of guesstimates are available on social media and other platforms. Most of these guesstimates are speculative. These are either based on a small and localized sample; or gambling trends.

Many stock market experts have also presented their scenario analysis for the market performance depending upon the outcome of the general elections. Most experts have projected a sharp correction in the markets in case the incumbent BJP and its allies fail to secure the requisite majority in the Lok Sabha. As a keen political observer and a tiny investor, I am interested in these forecasts.

Unfortunately, I find that the discussions available in the public domain are not based on available empirical evidence; they lack credible analysis, and are highly speculative. These discussions deeply suffer from personal biases, political prejudices, and misplaced presumptions. One of the illustrative scenario analyses available in the public domain is reproduced below. In my view, nothing could be more baseless and more speculative than this analysis.

 

In the outgoing 17^th Lok Sabha, the incumbent BJP has 303 members, a strong majority. In the preceding 16^th Lok Sabha, the BJP had 281 members with its NDA allies having another 71 seats.

The preceding UPA government was arguably much weaker with no single party having a majority of its own. Regardless, the performance of USDINR and Nifty was better during 2004-2014 compared to the 2014-2024 period.

·         Sensex yielded a return of 15.5% CAGR during the UPA regime (2004-2014), while the Sensex return has been ~12.2% CAGR during the NDA regime (2014-2024).

·        USDINR had weakened at a pace of 2.7% CAGR during 2004-2014; while it has weakened at a pace of 3.5% CAGR during 2014-2024. 

On the social and economic reforms front also there is no empirical evidence of weaker governments doing worse than the stronger governments in the past four decades.

In my view, the market does witness heightened volatility during general elections, but there is no empirical evidence to establish a direct correlation between market performance and the form and constitution of the ruling political dispensation in India.

…to continue tomorrow