Do it yourself

After several years of corporate & bank balance sheet repair and fiscal correction, the contours of India's next economic growth cycle are beginning to emerge. With the Reserve Bank of India (RBI) maintaining a growth-supportive stance; union government showing strong commitment to fiscal consolidation, easing financing pressures for the private sector; and global markets showing signs of stabilization as geopolitical confrontations ease and trade disputes settled; the stage is set for a potential economic upswing. The spotlight is now on three competing themes — corporate consolidation, private capex, and household consumption — each pulling investor attention in different directions. Corporate begin to re-leverage After many years of deleveraging, corporate debt in India appears to have bottomed out and is now beginning to rise. This shift in trajectory marks a significant departure from the post-2016 era, where Indian companies focused on strengthening balance sheets followi...

  न चोरहार्यं न च राजहार्यं न भ्रातृभाज्यं न च भारकारी।   व्यये कृते वर्धत एव नित्यं विद्याधनं सर्वधनप्रधानम्॥ (Not stolen by thieves, not seized by kings, not divided amongst brothers, not heavy to carry. The more you spend, the more it flourishes always. The wealth of knowledge is the most important among all kind of wealth.) India stands at a pivotal moment in its journey to becoming a global economic powerhouse. With a young population, a burgeoning digital economy, accelerated clean energy transition, and an ambitious political leadership - the country has immense potential to enhance its participation in the global economy. However, there are several structural and systemic challenges that holding India back from realizing its full growth potential. In my view, five critical issues that are holding India back are – (i) an inadequate education system; (ii) a feudal governance structure; (iii) a sluggish justice delivery system: (iv) a broken civic services delivery system...

  The Niti Aayog published a working paper titled “India’s Path to Global Leadership: Strategic Imperatives for Viksit Bharat @2047”, in April 2025. The paper presents a roadmap for India’s economic growth, encompassing sustainability, social inclusion, national security, and global leadership. The paper outlines a strategic framework for achieving the goal of a developed India by 2047, by focusing on four key tasks: (i) Economic Competitiveness and Growth; (ii) National Security and Stability; (iii) Global Partnerships and Strategic Influence; and (iv)Legal Reforms and Good Governance. The paper emphasizes that successful completion of these tasks will require collective effort, collaboration, and sustained commitment across all sectors of society, government, and industry. Summary of the working paper Four Strategic Pillars ·          Economic Competitiveness & Growth: streamline regulations, boost innovation (R&D, AI, sma...

The Indian stock market has once again demonstrated its remarkable ability to weather turbulent times. Despite significant geopolitical headwinds, including the Indo-Pak tensions in April 2025 and the escalating Iran-Israel conflict in June 2025, the benchmark Nifty 50 has shown resilience, recouping losses swiftly and even posting gains. Month-to-date (MTD) in June 2025, the Nifty 50 has its ground firmly , despite threatening news flow, a weakening rupee, and surging oil prices. Trading volumes on the National Stock Exchange (NSE) have surged, even as foreign portfolio investors (FPIs) are only marginal net buyers and promoter entities offloaded over  ₹ 400 billion in shares. Meanwhile, domestic institutional investors (DIIs) have though accelerated their buying and providing support to the market. One may argue that this tendency to quickly overcome geopolitical shocks isn’t new. Over the past five years, the Nifty 50 and Sensex have delivered annualized returns of 10-12%, navig...

A famous fund manager recently expressed serious concerns about a “financial crisis” that is just about to hit the Indian middle-class households ( see here ). In a podcast with Mint, he said, “With household financial savings at a 50-year low and debt levels (excluding mortgages) among the highest globally, the country is dangerously unprepared for a looming wave of tech-driven job disruption.” He was apparently referring to the disruption created by the popularity of “Artificial Intelligence” (AI) in the global job market. I have no disagreement with the analysis of this gentleman. In fact, to a large extent I do agree with his concerns. The fabled Indian middle class may indeed be facing an unprecedented crisis. However, I have my reservations about AI causing or accentuating this crisis. I firmly believe that this advancement in technology, just like all the previous ones, will definitely improve overall employment prospects, in particular, and quality of life, in general. If anyth...

  Where did we lose our way? My engagement with Indian financial markets began in the late 1980s, at a time when the winds of reform had just started sweeping through the economy. What followed in the 1990s was a structural reset — the kind that lays the foundation for decades of growth, even if its full implications aren’t immediately visible. The decade of 1990s witnessed – (i)     An overhaul of the financial sector with abolition of capital controls, opening of doors for the foreign portfolio investors, entry of private banks in the markets, material liberalization of the rules for non-bank lenders (NBFCs); laying foundation for pension and insurance sector reforms; (ii)    Significant liberalization of the industrial licensing system; material dilution of the Monopolies and Restrictive Trade Practices Act and Foreign Exchange Regulation Act, de-reservation of several articles from Small Scale Industries, introduction of Liberalized Exchange Rat...