Tuesday, April 3, 2018

GST - A winner

"More tears are shed over answered prayers than unanswered ones."
—Saint Teresa of Avila (Spanish, 1515-1582)
Word for the day
Inscape (n)
The unique essence or inner nature of a person, place, thing, or event, especially depicted in poetry or a work of art.
Malice towards none
What kind of parents would buy question papers for their children?
How far they think, could their children travel with these broken crutches they are buying?
First random thought this morning
The furor seen over the CBSE decision to conduct a fresh examination in cases where examination paper were found to be fraudulently leaked beforehand, is unprecedented.
Even a decade back, students and parents would have accepted the decision of the board and government as fait accompli and moved on. The Society, in that sense is certainly more aware and evolved. It actively and assertively seeks more transparency and accountability for government decisions and actions.
I am not sure whether the government is recognizing this change in the society, because it does have some answers to provide before 2019 elections.

GST - A winner

Over the long weekend last week, I met a variety of people. I also visited some key NCR markets to feel the sentiments. I think it appropriate to share some of my impressions with my readers.
The best thing I discovered was the dramatic change in people's behavior with regard to GST. Almost everyone seems to have accepted GST as intrinsic to their business. The teething troubles witnessed earlier seems to be easing. Systems are stabilizing.
I even saw a wholesale textile trader guiding and training his buyers from small towns in UP and MP about GST. Very interestingly, he was guiding them why and how they should gradually move from 'cash only' dealings to 'cheque dealings'. He even has set 31st March 2019 as deadline for accepting cash payments from them.
Insofar as the persistently poor GST collection data is concerned, based on my interaction with some businessmen and tax professionals, I presume there is huge leakage in GST. A number of unscrupulous businessmen, aided by tax professionals, are able not only to evade payment of GST, but are also fraudulently claiming refunds. I am sure the authorities are aware of this and working on this. This leakage might take few more quarters to plug. In the meantime, many genuine tax payers may suffer due to delayed refunds. Of course, there is no denying that delays in refunds, to some extent could be due to deliberate delaying tactics by tax authorities to manage the budgeted tax collection targets.
Nonetheless, my impression is that from FY20 onwards, GST will indeed prove to be the boon for Indian economy, as it was originally expected.
I do not say it because I feel that tax revenue will grow due to this. I feel so, because this will likely bring an important behavioral change in the typical Indian businessmen.
Notwithstanding with what the famous World Bank (see here) report said about Indian GST, my impression is that, once stable, it will make doing business really easy. Moreover, it will add scalability to the businesses, which was hitherto hindered by petty tax avoidance considerations.
A chance meeting with a senior revenue officer was also quite enlightening.
The officer believes that "the Indian economy has never been so fragmented. It seems there are thousands of unconnected silos.
There are some segments of the economy that are doing extremely well. There are some which are just tagging along — helpless and worried about future. There are some which are taking risk of making large investment in transformative technology and business practices to adapt to new age business paradigm. But there is a large segment that is seriously distressed. This segment may not be too large in terms of business volumes, tax revenue or overall profitability, but still remains a key to consumption.

Wednesday, March 28, 2018

FY18 - Market recap

Thought for the day
"It took me years to understand that words are often as important as experience, because words make experience last."
—William Morris (English, 1834-1896)
Word for the day
Kismet (n)
Fate, destiny
Malice towards none
Who stole my Data?
Has anyone heard about Google Baba?
One may call Rahul Gandhi by whatever name, ridicule him, reject him outrightly, but one thing is definite - he has put the mighty BJP on defensive.
Since past couple of months in particular, Rahul Gandhi would make some seemingly absurd allegation and the entire BJP machinery (including firebrand defense minister, textile minister, law minister and army of spokespersons) would remain busy denying it and levying some counter allegations.
The TV channel debates appear like someone in a crowded room has thrown his s**t in the air and switched on the fan.

FY18 - Market recap

The financial year 2017-18 started on a very optimistic note for Indian financial markets.
BJP had just scored a massive electoral victory in UP. This was widely assumed to mean that people and economy have moved on leaving the scar of Demonetization behind.
The market participants were full of hope anticipating GST to be panacea for many economic ailments.
The proposed New bankruptcy law, that was about to be passed by Lok Sabha, promised speedy resolution of NPAs.
Analysts were very optimistic about earnings finally growing after staying mostly flat for two preceding years.
The world economy and markets were also looking in great shape. The fears of Trump disrupting the global economy had mostly receded. US Fed had assured of orderly normalization of monetary policy. ECB and BoJ were still in "whatever it takes" mode and appeared in no hurry to withdraw stimulus.
Riding on the high hopes, markets world over rose to new highs. Indian equities also scaled new highs, before some dark cloud started gathering on the horizon.
Energy prices suddenly appeared sustaining at higher levels. US President appeared acting on his threat to build tariff walls and VISA restrictions. US yields started to rise. Domestic inflation started to pick up. Liquidity tightened, pushing rates higher. FPI flows turned negative even in debt. Market started anticipating a hike from RBI instead of cut. A bout of new bank defaults raised fear of fresh slippages. CAD shot up beyond 2% of GDP. Growth targets were cut. Earnings did not match the expectations.
The market accordingly responded negatively.
Benchmark equity indices corrected ~10% from their all time highs. Broader markets corrected even higher. One year SIP return vanished. Debt fund returns also moderated considerably as bond yields rose sharply.
Introduction of long term capital gains tax and inclusion of equity funds in the ambit of dividend distribution tax in union budget for FY19 changed the rules of the game for equity investors.
Change of rules prescribed by SEBI for categorization and benchmarking of mutual fund schemes also caused some disturbances in the market.
A certain degree of uncertainty has crept in after the recent bypolls in UP & Bihar, and withdrawal of TDP from NDA fold.
Consequently, the financial year is ending on rather cautious note with below par returns and considerably moderated expectations forFY19.
 
10yr benchmark yields rose and bond trading volumes shrunk.

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Markets corrected sharply in last two months.

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Consumption best performer, pharma the worst.

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Foreign investors remained consistent sellers most of the year. Domestic flows sporadic.
 

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Huge divergence in mutual fund returns. Small cap and FMCG funds best performers. Pharma fund the worst.
Large cap funds returns mirrored the nifty. Multi cap a shade better. Small cap outperform despite late sell off.
 

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FY18 NIFTY EPS downgraded to ~Rs455, from Rs520 in the beginning of FY18.
FY19 still elevated.

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Technically Nifty at threshold of two important events — (a) crossover of 50EDMA below 100EDMA and (b) Nifty sustaining below 200EDMA.
In mid 2015 this occurrence resulted in sharp corrections.

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