Do it yourself

As I mentioned yesterday ( see here ) the pain being felt presently by the non-institutional investors is disproportionately high. For the investors and traders who have spent a short period of time in the market, mostly those who started investing in post Covid period, the pain may be actual, while for those who have been investing for a long time, the pain might only be notional due to perception of relative underperformance or loss of opportunity cost. Over exposure to small cap stocks While large caps account for ~60–63% of total and free-float market capitalization, retail participation in this segment has been relatively muted. Institutional investors—both domestic and foreign—continue to dominate ownership and trading activity in large caps. As a result, price discovery here has been more orderly, liquidity deeper, and drawdowns relatively contained. In contrast, non-institutional investors (retail investors, HNIs, family offices, and smaller proprietary books) have had di...

The benchmark Nifty50 has faced acute selling pressure around the 26000 level in the past two months. It has made several unsuccessful attempts to sustainably topple over this barrier. Nifty Midcap100 (benchmark for midcap stocks) has also shown a similar trend in the 60000-60500 range. Nifty Smallcap 100 (benchmark for smallcap stocks) has declined for the past two months. It is pertinent to note that in Indian context, a large cap company is defined as a company that falls within the top 100 companies in the country in terms of total market capitalization. At present, the companies with a total market capitalization in excess of appx Rs1060bn (~USD1.2bn) would qualify to be large cap companies. The companies with a market capitalization rank from 101 to 250 are termed as midcap companies. Presently, the companies with a total market capitalization between 343bn and Rs1060bn (US$375mn to US$1.2bn) are classified as midcap companies. All other companies are classified as small cap co...

Over the past few weeks, Indian financial markets have begun to show unmistakable signs of stress. While the benchmark indices such as the Nifty and Sensex have largely managed to hold their ground, the underlying market tone tells a very different story. A significant number of small- and mid-cap stocks have undergone sharp price corrections, exposing the fragility beneath what still appears, on the surface, to be a resilient market. This divergence between benchmark indices and broader market performance is often an early signal of rising investor discomfort. And this time, the discomfort has morphed into something closer to panic. The anatomy of the current panic The most pronounced damage has been in momentum-driven stocks, many of which were heavily owned by non-institutional investors. As liquidity dried up, these stocks witnessed not just steep price declines but also an absence of buyers, exacerbating the fall. This is a familiar pattern: assets that rise rapidly on optimism an...

Indian equities have had a quiet year by headline numbers. The Nifty50 is up ~8% over the past twelve months—modest when compared with the sharp rallies in South Korea (KOSPI +71%), Japan (+30%), Brazil (+21%), China (+17%), the United States (+13%) and Europe (+12%). But short-term snapshots often hide more than they reveal. Shift the lens to the past three years, and the picture changes meaningfully. Despite geopolitical shocks, supply-chain disruptions, rate volatility and tariff actions, the Nifty50 has delivered +41%, materially outperforming Europe and China, and broadly matching Brazil. Korea (+82%), Japan (+76%) and the US (+68%) remain the standout performers. Bottom line:  2025 has been a year of consolidation for India—less about chasing returns, more about normalising valuations and aligning equity performance with earnings and nominal growth. And that’s not a bad thing. It’s what mature markets do. A Decade of Maturity: Indian Equities Have Entered a New Regime Over th...

The empirical evidence in India suggests that the returns from a SIP stabilize around the underlying asset's long term average return. I analyzed the Nifty50 data from 01 January 2001 to 01 November 2025. I assumed various investors invested a fixed amount at beginning of each month for a tenure of 299 months (25yrs), 240 months (20yrs), 180months (15yrs), 120 months (10yrs), 60 months (5yrs) and 36 months (3yrs). Actual Nifty50 data (closing price on first day of each month) was taken for the sake of convenience, assuming dividend yield cancelled the fund management charges and tracking error (for ETF investors) and brokerages and impact cost for direct equity investors. The analysis indicates that an SIP in Nifty50 started to outperform the Nifty50 index return only after 7 yrs. The outperformance peaked around 180 months (15yrs) and started to decline. For 20 yrs tenure, Nifty50 monthly SIP returns (CAGR) is almost same as the change in Nifty50. For 25 yrs tenure, SIP returns ou...

I returned to my desk after a 10-day Diwali break. As I opened my overflowing mailbox, I realized a lot might have changed in the meantime. Nifty50 is flirting with its all-time level. INR has regained some of its lost ground. Precious metal prices have cooled after a sharp upmove. There is a conspicuous thaw in the Indo-US and Sino-US relations. Prime Minister Modi, who hardly missed an opportunity to represent India at various global forums, has missed the ASEAN summit after missing the UNGA annual session, arguably to avoid a one-on-one meeting with President Trump. However, what caught my attention was a large number of notes, reports, messages alluding to the unsustainable $38trn US government debt, and how the US government and the US Federal Reserve are conspiring to dissipate this mountain of debt by manipulating the prices of gold and cryptocurrencies (especially Bitcoins). Most messages are arguing that 2026 could be a 1933 and/or 1971 redux, when USD was devalued 69% (1933...

Following the Custom: Balancing Faith and Fundamentals Each Diwali, as lamps light up homes, optimism lights up Dalal Street too. It’s that time of the year again. Business channels are abuzz with market commentators dressed in their festive best, sharing their annual outlooks on the economy and equities. Almost by ritual, hope dominates the narrative — and that’s not necessarily a bad thing. This year, with investor sentiment subdued and global uncertainties still clouding the horizon, a measured dose of optimism may be just what the market needs. Continuing the custom, here’s a closer look at what could turn favorable for Indian markets over the next one year — and what investors should keep an eye on. Domestic Drivers: The Spark Within Consumption revival on the horizon After three years of subdued consumption, several catalysts are now aligning. Rationalization of income tax and GST rates, material lending reforms by the RBI, a supportive rate environment, and a good monsoon could ...

In recent times, one of the most extrapolated data by the market participants in India has been the household participation in the capital markets. Several research papers/reports have highlighted the relatively low deployment of the Indian household savings into the capital market, especially listed equity shares, to argue for a high growth potential in this area. In fact, capital market related stocks like brokerages, AMCs, depositories, exchanges and transfer agents & registrars, have been outperforming the broader markets for the past few years. Impressed by the trend, NSE has even launched an index (Nifty Capital Market index) to capture the performance of this sector. Indubitably, the Indian capital markets are at the threshold of a major transition. Acceleration in institutionalization of household participation has been a major trend in the past five years. Access to banking and financial markets has improved materially with the advancement of technology and digitalizatio...

The first half of the financial year FY26 has been good for financial and commodity markets in general. Despite elevated geopolitical concerns, renewed trade war, slowing growth in major economies and emerging deflationary pressures, stock market, crypto assets, and precious metals, and industrial metals performed rather well. Energy and soft commodity prices were lower, indicating good price control. The global central bankers accordingly remained on the easing path. India however was an outlier in the global context. Indian equities, currency and bond markets were one of the worst performers globally. South Koren equities were the best performing equities in 1HFY26. Chinese and German equities were other notable outperformers. Equity indices of the US, Japan, and the UK also recorded strong gains. The most notable feature of global markets was the sharp rally in precious metal. The central bankers across emerging markets accelerated their gold accumulation, in view of the geopolitica...