Do it yourself

The Indian stock market has once again demonstrated its remarkable ability to weather turbulent times. Despite significant geopolitical headwinds, including the Indo-Pak tensions in April 2025 and the escalating Iran-Israel conflict in June 2025, the benchmark Nifty 50 has shown resilience, recouping losses swiftly and even posting gains. Month-to-date (MTD) in June 2025, the Nifty 50 has its ground firmly , despite threatening news flow, a weakening rupee, and surging oil prices. Trading volumes on the National Stock Exchange (NSE) have surged, even as foreign portfolio investors (FPIs) are only marginal net buyers and promoter entities offloaded over  ₹ 400 billion in shares. Meanwhile, domestic institutional investors (DIIs) have though accelerated their buying and providing support to the market. One may argue that this tendency to quickly overcome geopolitical shocks isn’t new. Over the past five years, the Nifty 50 and Sensex have delivered annualized returns of 10-12%, navig...

The Middle East is once again a tinderbox, with the escalating Israel-Iran conflict threatening to spiral into a broader global crisis. Unlike the recent Indo-Pak hostilities, which remained contained, this clash carries the potential to draw in multiple nations, disrupting global trade and energy markets. For India, which is heavily reliant on energy imports, the stakes are high. While India has reiterated its neutral stance, the ripple effects of a prolonged conflict could significantly impact its energy security, inflation, current account balance, INR exchange rate, fiscal stability, and overall economic growth prospects. This global flashpoint could have local consequences The Israel-Iran conflict differs starkly from localized India and Pakistan military engagements. With China and Pakistan openly backing Iran, and Russia potentially supplying critical defense equipment should the U.S. directly support Israel, the geopolitical fault lines are deepening. For India, this pres...

After the recent geopolitical escalation between India and Pakistan, the president of the United States (POTUS), Donald J. Trump, has become one of the most hated personalities amongst Indian households. His babbling about facilitating a truce between two neighbors, offering trade deals as incentive, may not have gone well with most Indians; even though the Indian government has officially denied any role of the POTUS and his administration in negotiation with Pakistan. This is perhaps one of the reasons the market discourse has mostly ignored “the strategic economic partnership” signed between U.S. President Donald Trump and Saudi Arabia’s Crown Prince Mohammed bin Salman, last week. In my view, this renewed strength in the Arab-US relations is very significant, not only for the US economy, but also for a much wider global economic context. Although, it might be speculative on my part, nonetheless I believe that this “strategic economic partnership” deal could potentially result in— (...

2023 was a watershed year in many respects. The global economy, politics, geopolitics, climate, and technology witnessed some material changes that would have critical long-term impacts on human life. Global economy The global economy resumed the process of normalization after two years of disruptions caused by the pandemic and the Ukraine war. Supply chains were mostly restored. Fiscal and monetary stimulus unleashed to mitigate the impact of Covid-19 started to wind up. The prices of most commodities that had witnessed a sharp surge in the previous couple of years retraced back to their pre-covid trajectories. The interest rate cycle, which witnessed one of the sharpest hikes in policy rates in decades to rein the runaway inflation, also appears to have peaked. The developed economies have been mostly successful in avoiding a meaningful recession, despite material monetary tightening, higher rates, and fiscal restraints. Most notably, Japan, which has been struggling with defla...

  In a paper published in 1988 researchers William Samuelson and Richard Zeckhauser highlighted that a large majority of people have a cognitive bias against change in their present conditions. In their research, they found that “people show a disproportionate preference for choices that maintain the status quo.” They referred to this trait of human behavior as “status quo bias”. Several other researchers have added subsequently to the findings of Samuelson and Zeckhauser. In my personal life, I have noticed several instances of status quo bias whether it is ordering in a restaurant, making investment decisions, buying vehicles, choosing healthcare professionals, or even voting in the elections. I find that status quo bias is particularly strong during periods of stress or crisis. I have observed that during periods of stress or crisis (actual or perceived) people generally avoid trying new things, people, or places, etc. They prefer to trust their existing captain when the waters ...

  Last weekend the already tense situation escalated materially in the Israel-occupied Gaza Strip area of the Palestinian state. Apparently, the Hamas controlled militia launched a massive ariel and ground attack on Israeli territories, killing over 700 people and injuring many more, including several civilians - women and children. In retaliation, Israeli forces attacked the Palestinian territories in the Gaza Strip, killing over 300 people, including women and children, and destroying several civilian targets. This is the deadliest episode since 1967, in the conflict that started in the late 1940s. The government of Israel has formally declared war on Hamas, committing to a “mighty vengeance” and “a long and difficult war.” They have received support and solidarity from all their traditional allies like NATO members, Australia, and strategic partners like India. As per the latest reports 84 nations have issued formal statements supporting Israel’s right to self-defense. On the ...