Do it yourself

The Indo-US relations have never been linear and secular like Indo-Russia (Indo-Soviet) relations. Moreover, the Indo-US relations have mostly been transactional and opportunistic; with very little connect on cultural and social level. Both countries have based their strategies on their respective abilities to exploit the available opportunities. In the past three decades, India has significantly gained from the shortages of highly skilled human resources in the US. We have also shared the gains (with other emerging economies) from the US strategy of relocating their manufacturing processes. The US has benefitted from selling technology, energy and defense equipment to India. Besides, India has been an attractive high growth potential opportunity for US capital. Evidently, the US administration now seeks to redefine this transactional relationship. The present strife in the Indo-US relations may therefore sustain much longer than what most of us would have expected a couple of mont...

The first half of the financial year FY26 has been good for financial and commodity markets in general. Despite elevated geopolitical concerns, renewed trade war, slowing growth in major economies and emerging deflationary pressures, stock market, crypto assets, and precious metals, and industrial metals performed rather well. Energy and soft commodity prices were lower, indicating good price control. The global central bankers accordingly remained on the easing path. India however was an outlier in the global context. Indian equities, currency and bond markets were one of the worst performers globally. South Koren equities were the best performing equities in 1HFY26. Chinese and German equities were other notable outperformers. Equity indices of the US, Japan, and the UK also recorded strong gains. The most notable feature of global markets was the sharp rally in precious metal. The central bankers across emerging markets accelerated their gold accumulation, in view of the geopolitica...

The unincorporated sector, popularly referred to as the unorganized or informal sector, – comprising millions of small manufacturers, traders, and service providers – is indubitably the backbone of India’s economy. While informal in structure, it is deeply formal in impact: generating livelihoods, fostering entrepreneurship, and contributing significantly to the country’s GDP. Recently, the National Statistics Office (NSO) has begun releasing quarterly data on this sector through QBUSE, marking a big step toward more frequent and reliable tracking. The following is a summary of the data for the first two quarters of the year 2025. The data survey highlights that despite the challenges of formalization, productivity, and sustainability, the sector is expanding. Informal enterprises are growing with rising employment, steady digital adoption, and a strong rural push, and are continuing to be a silent driver of growth. Key points ·          T...

A consistent rise in global equity prices, not accompanied by a matching earnings growth, has raised concerns about the sustainability of current valuations. In particular, the tech sector valuations in US technology have raised alarms. Several reports have highlighted that the market conditions and investors’ sentiments bear a stark resemblance to the dotcom exuberance (1999-2000) period, and as such markets may have already crossed the fairness redline and moved over to the realm of bubble.  ​ ​ In this context, I would like to draw readers’ attention towards two particular reports that I find representative of the analysis advising caution. “Dotcom on Steroids” by GQG Partners. First report, titled “Dotcom on Steroids” has been published by GQG Partners, USA. This report draws parallels between the current AI-driven tech boom and the dotcom bubble of the late 1990s, warning of similar risks ahead. The report postulates- “Today's market, particularly in the tech sector, e...

  Continuing from yesterday...( see here ) Rising uncertainties In the past one year, global economic uncertainties have intensified, contributing to a marked slowdown in growth projections—from around 3.2% in 2024 to 2.3–3.0% in 2025—amid persistent disruptions that have eroded investor confidence and trade flows. This volatility stems from a confluence of interconnected factors, including policy unpredictability, deteriorating fiscal positions worldwide, and escalating geopolitical tensions, which collectively amplify risks of financial instability and reduced productivity.  ​ ​ Economic policy uncertainty Economic policy uncertainty (EPU) in the US has surged to levels roughly double its long-term average since 2008, exacerbated by the 2024 presidential election and subsequent shifts toward looser regulation, tax cuts, and aggressive tariffs. These US-centric changes have spiked trade policy uncertainty to record highs in early 2025, prompting front-loaded imports and marke...

  The events of the past two months clearly point towards   deteriorating global growth prospects ;   rising economic uncertainties ; and   widening geopolitical and trade conflicts . Market participants ought to take note of these dark clouds gathering on the horizon. Deteriorating global growth prospects The US economy flirting with stagflation The US Federal Reserve cut its target interest rate by 25bps to 4%-4.25% last week, after a pause of nine months. The fed officials now estimate two more cuts in the next three months. The Fed decided to continue reducing its securities holdings (Treasury, agency debt, agency mortgage-backed securities) as part of its balance sheet runoff. ·           Economic growth has moderated in the first half of the year. Consumer spending is weaker; and housing remains weak. ·           Core inflation is still above the Fed target. The Fed Chairm...