Do it yourself

  The prime minister Narendra Modi carried out one of the largest cabinet changes today evening. Twelve of the incumbent ministers were asked to resign from their respective posts and 43 new ministers were sworn in. Most of the omitted ministers are senior politicians with vast political and administrative experience. Whereas many of the newly inducted ministers are young and relatively less experienced. The media has been running live debates and discussions since evening to analyze the import of the latest cabinet reshuffle. A number of political experts, senior journalists and observers have been intensely discussing the inductions and omissions. The participants in debate include many of the so-called liberal intellectuals who have been critical of the Modi government performance on various parameters. The most unfortunate part is that discussion totally exposes the bankruptcy of participating experts. Most of the participants are refusing to believe that India is a secular...

 The city of Merrut in Western UP is famous for many things. In the ancient history, the town finds mention in both Ramayana and Mahabharata. In Ramayana, Merrut is the birth place Ravana’s wife Mandodari; while in Mahabharata it is part of the Hastinapur, the Pandavs’ kingdom. The medieval history of the town goes back to Indus Valley Civilization. In the modern history, the town was an important cantonment of British. It was in Merrut, where the first organized uprising against the British started in 1857. In post independent era, Merrut emerged as one of the famous education centers in UP. However, it became more notorious for the infamous Hashimpura massacre by the Provincial Armed Constabulary (PAC) in May 1987, when Virbhadra Singh of Indian National Congress was the Chief Minister of Uttar Pradesh. With that one incident started the decline of Indian National Congress. Congress lost power in the key States of UP and Bihar forever after that and could never form a majority go...

The status of Covid19 may no longer be that of a pandemic anymore. A large majority of countries have seen significant decline in the number of active patients, after having experienced the peak of infection cases. The fatality rate has declined materially, especially due to acceleration in the vaccination drive. However, in past few weeks, many countries in the world have seen reemergence of Covid19 cases in some clusters. Scientists are claiming that the rise in number of cases may be due to mutated variants of the Sars-CoV-2 virus. A fear has been expressed that we may soon see a third wave of the pandemic, primarily due to the emergence of new variants of Sars-CoV-2 virus, some of which might be immune to the vaccines available presently or the doses of vaccine being administered presently. The pandemic has changed a lot of things in past one year. The lockdown and mobility restrictions have materially impacted our personal, social, and economic lives. There is a great deal of ...

In its latest Annual General Meeting, Mr. Mukesh Ambani, Chairman of Reliance Industries announced an ambitious plan for setting up new energy business. The plan includes building four Giga factories to produce photovoltaic modules, advanced energy storage batteries, electrolyzers for the production of green hydrogen; and fuel cells for converting hydrogen into motive and stationary power. The announcement has added more energy to the already popular trade in alternative and new energy. Even though the media narrative has been more focused on the renewable energy and electric mobility, from stock market perspective, the most popular trade has perhaps been in the sugar manufacturers who have set up decent ethanol manufacturing capacities in past one decade or so. The Government of India had announced an ambitious ethanol blending program (EBP) in 2018, through a National Policy on Biofuels-2018 (NPB-2018) . The program included interest rate subvention for setting up molasses and gr...

  The tremendous rally in US technology stocks and global chip shortages have been two prominent themes that prompted many rich Indians to invest in US an Greater China equities in past one year. The investment advisors have used the opportunity to push for a global diversification of portfolios. The number of mutual funds offering global investment opportunities have multiplied in past one year. Recently, a number of advisors of have started pushing for a material exposure in European equities. The push has gathered more force after the recent FOMC meeting. This seems to be a global trend as most investors and traders are finding the valuations in European equities much cheaper; ECB and BoE more supportive, and volatility lower. In fact, over the past few weeks, European equity flows have been at the highest levels in three years. It seems that lot of investors might be crossing the Atlantic to land at European shores this summer. Some adventures ones may even cross the Caspian Se...

The US Federal Reserve in its latest policy briefing hinted that  “it might begin to think”  that  “when it should begin to think”  about the change in its policy stance of near zero interest rates. From whatever the 18 members of the US Central Bank might have uttered at the meeting of FOMC or thereafter, a broad conclusion has been drawn that the wolf might be sighted sometime in the year 2023. There are few who  “fear”  that wolf may surprise the markets by advancing its appearance in 2022 itself. Notwithstanding, there is a sizable number of experts who continue to believe that wolf of rate hike may not be coming in 2022 or 2023 or even 2024. Some also believe that this wolf does not exist only. Ms. Market, on its part, has realized that there is nothing to worry for next 12months, insofar as the Federal Reserve’s monetary policy is concerned. She has therefore decided to follow the  “will cross the bridge when we reach there”  approach. The y...

  I have been a morning person all through my life. The morning chirping of birds is my favorite music. The rising sun has always been a source of motivation and positivity for me. Watching the amber ball rising from the darkness at dawn and gaining light and energy in an hour, lends hope. It reminds me the classical poem of legendary Sahir Ludhyanavi “ रात भर का है अंधेरा , किसके रोके रुका है सवेरा” (The darkness is ephemeral, dawn is inevitable). I regularly go for a walk in the morning to listen to my favorite music and look at the rising run. I find it a perfect start to the day. However for few days something has been bothering me. Whenever I go for the morning walk, the security guards posted in our housing society salute me with a distinct display of servitude. They might have been instructed to greet the residents by their managers, but I could distinctly see the subservience in their attitude. The guards tired after struggling with mosquitoes the whole night, rising from...

 About a quarter of a century ago, I had just joined a midsized investment banking firm. My team of three people was assigned a mandate for IPO of a real estate company. We worked very hard (of course on our Excel Sheets and without the help of Saint Google) on the mandate and prepared a proposal which suggested that IPO may be priced in the band of Rs12-15. After the initial presentations were made, the team went to the promoter with the promoter of our firm for final presentation. After a detailed slide show was made, our boss told us to excuse them for 10minutes. After 10minutes, our boss came out and instructed, “IPO is in Rs28-30 band, prepare to file the documents for approvals.” This being my first experience, for a moment I was in a position of shock. I found the pricing ridiculous. I even told my senior that this IPO cannot be sold at this price. My senior who had experienced many such situations before just smiled and told me to shut my mouth and get on the job. Eventua...

 One of the few positives of Covid19 pandemic induced lockdown is the rise in birth rate in the Parsi communities. Reportedly, 61 babies were born to Parsi couple in the year 2020. The central government is motivating Parsi couple to increase their birth rate through Jiyo Parsi scheme. Regardless, it is highly unlikely that Parsi community in India may survive to see 22 nd Century, as their population continues to dwindle consistently. The fertility rate of parsi community is now close to 0.5, much below the replacement rate of 2.1, that is needed to keep the population constant. Amongst other minorities the fertility rate of Sikhs and Jains is also materially below the replacement rate as reflected in the decline in their population. I am mentioning this because of two reasons – (i) the latest popular narrative of population control law; and (ii) the fading prospects of demographic dividend of India, that has formed the basis many investment and business strategies. As per va...

As per the latest data published by Centre for Monitoring Indian Economy (CMIE), the unemployment rate in India was 11.9% (10.18%) in May 2021 (June 2020). The urban unemployment was much higher at 14.73% (11.68%), while the rural unemployment stood at 10.63% (9.49%). As per CMIE data, India’s unemployment rate was 6.5% in March 2021, just before the second wave of Covid19 pandemic hit India. It is therefore possible that the rate of unemployment normalize back to 6-7% range when the economy opens up in next 2-3months, as the intensity of pandemic has already subsided materially. The more worrisome trends highlighted by CMOE data however are- (a)    The labour participation rate is beginning to fall sharply after 55yrs o age. It is below 25% for the 60-64 age group – (b)    Unemployment rate is 35% in 20-24 age group. For youth in 20-29yr age group it is above 10%. (c)     The employment rate is 19.3% for the persons who have college degree....