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Head, tail or the edge - III

Thought for the day "Young lawyers attend the courts, not because they have business there, but because they have no business." -           Washington Irving (American, 1783-1859) Word for the day Ballast (n) Anything that gives mental, moral, economic or political stability or steadiness:  (Source: Dictionary.com) Teaser for the day Would be more pertinent question to ask "Will Mufti Government unhesitatingly arrest Masarat Alam et. al. again if they are found to be indulging in unlawful activities?" Head, tail or the edge - III I have been cautioning my readers that global financial markets might be heading for a "perfect storm" this summer. I am expecting a deeper correction in Indian equities also. This to me will be an opportunity to stock up, even by leveraging a little. I do not expect the markets to panic like it did post Lehman collapse in 2008-09. I find...

Head, tail or the edge - II

Thought for the day "I am always at a loss at how much to believe of my own stories." -           Washington Irving (American, 1783-1859) Word for the day Eyesome (adj) Oleasant to look at. (Source: Dictionary.com) Teaser for the day Mukesh Singh! What about politicians, academicians, Khap leaders, religious leaders and all those men who commit marital rape and doemstic violence everyday Head, tail or the edge - II As discussed yesterday, there are headwinds present in the system that may slow down the up move of Indian equities in the months to come. Arguably, the headwinds are mostly macro in the nature and not insurmountable. Tailwinds Fortunately for Indian equities, the tailwinds present in the system are strong, visible, and operating on both macro as well as micro levels. These may potentially catapult the equity prices in short to midterm (6-36months). ...

Head, tail or the edge

Thought for the day "The idol of today pushes the hero of yesterday out of our recollection; and will, in turn, be supplanted by his successor of tomorrow." -           Washington Irving (American, 1783-1859) Word for the day Sternuation (n) The act of sneezing. (Source: Dictionary.com) Teaser for the day How many in India would have watched the controversial BBC documentary if the issues was not raked by media at all? Head, tail or the edge "Could Congress get 300 seats in 2019 Lok Sabha elections?" I asked the people who called me to wish a Happy Holi. All of them had a belly laugh believing it to be some sort of Holi joke. By the evening I was convinced that if at all it occurs, it would be perfect example of a Black Swan event in Indian politics. At this point in time people are not even willing to give it odds they would usually give to a tossed coin falling on its...

Execution is the key

Thought for the day "We can't solve problems by using the same kind of thinking we used when we created them." -           Albert Einstein (German 1879-1955) Word for the day Effulgent (adj) Shining forth brilliantly; radiant. (Source: Dictionary.com) Teaser for the day Does Congress support for Insurance Bill marks any material change in strategy? Execution is the key The governments in past 25years have mostly adopted similar socio-economic policies consistently irrespective of their form (single party or multi party) or constitution (minority or majority). For example consider the following: 1.      The process of meaningful tax reforms was started by the then finance minister V. P. Singh (Congress 1984-89) by rationalizing the tax slabs, lowering maximum marginal tax rates substantially, rationalizing wealth tax and introducing CENVAT. The ...

Different things, or just done differently

Thought for the day "Any man who can drive safely while kissing a pretty girl is simply not giving the kiss the attention it deserves." -           Albert Einstein (German 1879-1955) Word for the day Augur (v) To conjecture from signs or omens; predict. (Source: Dictionary.com) Teaser for the day Regular vipasana, meditation, yoga, only home cooked vegetarian food, blood sugar level 300mg/dl. Find the odd man out? Different things, or just done differently Continuing from yesterday, to analyze if the incumbent NDA government is following materially different socio-economic policies from those followed by the previous UPA government, we need to distinguish between the policy framework and administrative framework for implementation of policies. We need to find whether the government is doing different things, or doing the same things differently, or doing the same things...

Pepsi, Coke, Apple and the rest

Pepsi, Coke, Apple and the rest The people who have followed the great cola rivalry over decades through their advertisement campaigns would know that this rivalry is about garnering higher market share - not much through product differentiation but mostly through perception manipulation. On the basis of a slight nuance of taste that has historically differentiated the two cola products these rival companies have created strongly committed and prejudiced consumer camps. People in these camps would argue tirelessly, almost with a missionary zeal, in favor of the supremacy of the product of their choice. People on both the sides of the fence know well that both the products are quintessentially the same. Both provide an instant gratification and leave a tinge on the tongue. Failure to absorb the extra calories through some hard work invariably leads to bloating, obesity and other metabolic disorders that may take a long time and huge effort to cure. More recently,...

Union Budget 2015-16: Continuity, simplification & incrementalism

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FM sails without rocking the boat The first full budget of the incumbent NDA government reinforces the trend seen in past three years. The focus continues on gradual simplification in the tax laws and procedures, withdrawing the fiscal stimulus, and building rural infrastructure. "Incrementalism" against "Big bang" has been the strategy and continues to be so. The question "whether FM could have done more?" is unfructuous in our view. Market economists dominate - Financial markets get a cause to cheer In a material departure from the past, the Union Budget, much like Railway Budget, has a distinct mark of the dominance of market economists. Historically the budget had been dominated by development economists. Financial markets should find a cause to cheer in this. Vision 2022 - all encompassing development, execution to improve The vision 2022 of the PM Modi finds some feet on the ground with this budget. The budget presents...