Do it yourself

Continuing from yesterday…( see here ) As I mentioned that the old narratives of the Smoot-Hawley Tariff Act (Tariff protection for domestic businesses), New Deal (Fiscal profligacy to stimulate economy) and Plaza Accord (fiscal and monetary manipulation by government/central banks to balance trade) do not fit the current circumstances, given the vastly different context. The efforts to fit the current U.S. President’s economic actions (and promises) related to trade, tariffs, and fiscal policy into historical molds, don’t align with today’s reality, and may be an exercise in futility. For example, consider the following: ·           In 1930, global trade was 5% of U.S. GDP, and the world economy was already in freefall post-1929 crash. In 2025, trade is a larger share of GDP (e.g., ~25% for the U.S.), but global supply chains are far more integrated, making outright trade wars costlier and less likely. Modern trade agreements (e.g., USMCA, W...

In yesterday’s post I mentioned that in my view the likely demographic change over the next couple of decades is a more interesting investment theme than the more popular climate change or ESG. ( see here ) Some readers have sent their comments and views on the topic. A few have expressed disagreement with my hypothesis; but a large majority seems to be in agreement. A couple of readers have pointed out that demographic change and climate change are intricately intertwined and share a circular causal relationship. I fully agree with this viewpoint. The investment themes that support both climate change and demographic change could actually be the best investment theme. Metaverse is one such theme, in my view. The Federation of Indian Chambers of Commerce & Industry (FICCI) in a recently released knowledge paper – “Metaverse and Emerging Opportunities” – highlighted some interesting aspects of this massive opportunity that has the potential to transform, inter alia , the way we wo...

  “The afternoon knows what the morning never suspected.”―Robert Frost In past few years, cryptocurrencies (especially Bitcoin) have gained material importance in the global financial system. Though the character of Bitcoin (or cryptocurrencies for that matter) is still evolving and it is not certain if it will assume the character of a currency; end up just being a collectible asset like Art, wine, vintage vehicles, old coins, etc.; or just end like a bad dream. But as of now, the debate over its relevance, sustainability, desirability, etc., is intense and wide. In my view, it is a debate that will continue for many more years and no one will remain unaffected by it. Almost everyone who transacts in money or is part of the global economic system will need to deal with at some point in time. Majority of experts still skeptical A large number of prominent personalities in the field of finance, technology and economics, like Warren Buffet, Jamie Dimon, Peter Schiff, Paul Kru...

 The work on developing as crypto currency started in early 1980s. The idea was to create a medium of exchange that is independent of any central authority, is based on trust and is accepted by distributed consensus. The process was formally commercialized in 2009 with release of Bitcoin, the first decentralized crypto currency. May be uncertainty over future of fiat currencies post global financial crisis (which led to printing of unprecedented amount of new money) prompted adoption of an independent currency as medium of exchange. Since then, the crypto currencies based on block chain technology have been gaining popularity. Presently, besides Bitcoin, over 6000 variants of crypto currencies are in vogue. The present value of all bitcoin in circulation is over US$250bn and the average daily trading value of bitcoins id over US$23bn. It is clear that Bitcoin is emerging as a serious challenger to Gold as an alternative currency or medium for exchange of value. In India, RBI issu...