Do it yourself

2023 was a watershed year in many respects. The global economy, politics, geopolitics, climate, and technology witnessed some material changes that would have critical long-term impacts on human life. Global economy The global economy resumed the process of normalization after two years of disruptions caused by the pandemic and the Ukraine war. Supply chains were mostly restored. Fiscal and monetary stimulus unleashed to mitigate the impact of Covid-19 started to wind up. The prices of most commodities that had witnessed a sharp surge in the previous couple of years retraced back to their pre-covid trajectories. The interest rate cycle, which witnessed one of the sharpest hikes in policy rates in decades to rein the runaway inflation, also appears to have peaked. The developed economies have been mostly successful in avoiding a meaningful recession, despite material monetary tightening, higher rates, and fiscal restraints. Most notably, Japan, which has been struggling with defla...

  Last year, the former Japanese prime minister Shinzo Abe was assassinated while he was addressing a public meeting. This is perhaps the first of its kind of act of violence since assassination of Inejirō Asanuma, the then Chairman of the Japan Socialist Party, in 1960. The visuals of Abe’s assassination may have shattered the image of Japan, most people would be carrying in their mind, viz., the image of most courteous people showing remarkable patience and calmness in their public behavior. The post WW2 generation had only witnessed Japanese people who were extra polite, patient, courteous, and cooperative. These Japanese were very different from the pre-WW2 Japanese, who took pride in their martial and imperialistic traditions. Political assassinations were commonplace. The Japanese Army was considered one of the most brutal forces. The imperialist Japanese occupied parts of Russia, China, and Korea; plundered their wealth, and enslaved their women. The 1945 nuclear attack on...

In the past 6 years, several significant events have occurred that would shape the new global order in the next decade or two. I would particularly like to mention the following ten events that in my view could potentially prove to be transformative for the global order: 1.      Incorporation of the Belt and Road Initiative (BRI) into the Constitution of the Chinese Communist Party. (2017) 2.      Abolition of time limits, allowing Xi Jinping to remain General Secretary of the Chinese Communist Party and chairman of the Central Military Commission for life. (2018) (After winning an overwhelming majority in the 2020 elections, Russian President Vladimir Putin is also eligible to stay in office until 2036.) 3.      The Exit of the UK from the common European market (the EU) (2017-2020); and the elevation of the first non-white person (Rishi Sunak) to the office of Prime Minister of the UK in 2022. 4.      The ...

  In a paper published in 1988 researchers William Samuelson and Richard Zeckhauser highlighted that a large majority of people have a cognitive bias against change in their present conditions. In their research, they found that “people show a disproportionate preference for choices that maintain the status quo.” They referred to this trait of human behavior as “status quo bias”. Several other researchers have added subsequently to the findings of Samuelson and Zeckhauser. In my personal life, I have noticed several instances of status quo bias whether it is ordering in a restaurant, making investment decisions, buying vehicles, choosing healthcare professionals, or even voting in the elections. I find that status quo bias is particularly strong during periods of stress or crisis. I have observed that during periods of stress or crisis (actual or perceived) people generally avoid trying new things, people, or places, etc. They prefer to trust their existing captain when the waters ...

  Last weekend the already tense situation escalated materially in the Israel-occupied Gaza Strip area of the Palestinian state. Apparently, the Hamas controlled militia launched a massive ariel and ground attack on Israeli territories, killing over 700 people and injuring many more, including several civilians - women and children. In retaliation, Israeli forces attacked the Palestinian territories in the Gaza Strip, killing over 300 people, including women and children, and destroying several civilian targets. This is the deadliest episode since 1967, in the conflict that started in the late 1940s. The government of Israel has formally declared war on Hamas, committing to a “mighty vengeance” and “a long and difficult war.” They have received support and solidarity from all their traditional allies like NATO members, Australia, and strategic partners like India. As per the latest reports 84 nations have issued formal statements supporting Israel’s right to self-defense. On the ...