Do it yourself

  "It is difficult to make predictions, particularly about the future." — Mark Twain There must have been times, not long back in human history, when making economic forecast was a straight forward process based on rational thinking. The economists could predict the demand supply equilibrium and consequent price tendencies with reasonable accuracy. The investors and traders could use these forecasts to make a strategy best suited to the likely economic trends. The governments (and later central banks) could rely on these forecasts and design their monetary policy and fiscal response. If that were not to be the case, economics would not have got recognition as scientific discipline of study. However, by observing historical trends in correlation between the economic forecasts and investors’/traders’ behavior and policy response to the forecast, I find that investors, traders and policy makers have seldom taken these forecasts seriously. In fact, the developed economies, wi...