Some notable research snippets of the week
Monsoon, agriculture, prices (Yes Bank) The focus for economic agents over the last few weeks was the onset of the SW monsoon, especially as the El Nino risks have been now moved to an “Alert” from “Neutral”. This year, the monsoon had a delayed start as was predicted, and its progress was also initially stalled by the cyclonic conditions that developed over the Arabian Sea. However, monsoons have now covered the whole country. From, a deficit of around 55%-60% in the initial part of June, cumulative rainfall till 3rd July shows a deficit of only 8%. This is good news, but the worry comes from an uneven spread of the monsoon. Southern Peninsula is currently seeing a large deficit of around 43% while the North-West region has a large surplus of 40%. East and North-East India sees a deficit of 16% while the deficit for Central India is 4%. Even as the IMD has predicted a normal monsoon for July, tracking the temporal and spatial progress of the SW monsoon in July and August remains imp...