Do it yourself

The year 2025 is likely to be remembered not as a moment of rupture, but as a period when several long-term global trends became impossible to ignore. Political realignments, economic fragmentation, and rapid technological change have collectively weakened the assumptions that shaped the global order over the past three decades. Rather than a sudden “reset,” the world appears to be undergoing a gradual but meaningful reconfiguration. Existing systems continue to function, yet their underlying logic is shifting. Governments, markets, and institutions are adjusting to this reality, though not always in a coordinated or predictable manner. From integration to strategic competition For much of the post–Cold War period, economic integration was seen as a stabilizing force. Trade, capital flows, and technology exchange were expected to align national interests and reduce conflict. That assumption is now being tested. Major economies are increasingly treating economic capabilities as ...

Over the past few weeks, Indian financial markets have begun to show unmistakable signs of stress. While the benchmark indices such as the Nifty and Sensex have largely managed to hold their ground, the underlying market tone tells a very different story. A significant number of small- and mid-cap stocks have undergone sharp price corrections, exposing the fragility beneath what still appears, on the surface, to be a resilient market. This divergence between benchmark indices and broader market performance is often an early signal of rising investor discomfort. And this time, the discomfort has morphed into something closer to panic. The anatomy of the current panic The most pronounced damage has been in momentum-driven stocks, many of which were heavily owned by non-institutional investors. As liquidity dried up, these stocks witnessed not just steep price declines but also an absence of buyers, exacerbating the fall. This is a familiar pattern: assets that rise rapidly on optimism an...

The 2025 th   year of the Christ is beginning on a very tentative note, particularly for investors in financial markets. The past four years have been relatively smooth for investors. With the benefit of hindsight, we can confidently claim that the markets were mostly driven by macro factors. Unprecedented liquidity infusion by the central banks and fiscal support to consumers across the world helped most asset classes to perform well. Despite massive global disruptions due to the pandemic and geopolitical, the volatility in markets was largely contained. Since most asset classes yielded decent returns for investors, they were not really pushed hard to make choices. However, the trend seen in the past few months is indicating that the conditions might change materially in the next 12-24 months. The macro trends may become ambivalent and unpredictable. Investors may need to make choices; and the return they would earn on their investment portfolios would largely depend on the choice...