Do it yourself

For the past two weeks my message inbox has been flooded with messages highlighting that recently “Hindenburg Omen Signal”, which preceded the 2008 and 2020 stock market crashes, has been triggered and a stock market collapse may be imminent. There are several other technical and strategy reports cautioning investors against an apparent bubble in the Artificial Intelligence (AI) related stocks. Hindenburg Omen Signal:  The Hindenburg omen is a technical indicator designed to signal the  increased likelihood  of a stock market crash. It compares the percentage of new 52-week highs and new 52-week lows in stock prices to a preset reference percentage (typically 2.2%) to predict the increasing likelihood of a market crash. The indicator is said to be suitable for about 30 days out, though it's been a false alarm more often than not in the past decade. Four criteria must be met to signal a Hindenburg omen: ·           The daily num...

What would be the first thought that crosses your mind, when you hear a veteran fund manager betting his shirt on Nifty falling 30-40% in the next 6months! Yes, you heard it right. Last week, a former CEO/CIO of a large AMC, confidently told an audience composed of top bankers and HNIs that Nifty is bound to come to sub 10000 levels in next 6months and gold is the only safe haven under the present circumstances. I am not sure about how many amongst the audience actually concurred with his view, but the first thought that came to my mind was “how would this old man look without a shirt!” In a recent visit to the financial capital Mumbai, I also had the opportunity to meet some senior market participants (bankers and investors). None of them sounded enthusiastic about the markets. The consensus appears to be strongly favoring a slow grind over the next 6-9months. Incidentally, the reference point for most of the senior participants is 2008 market crash, in the wake of the global fi...