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2008 like panic selloff will be an opportunity

Thought for the day "No sensible decision can be made any longer without taking into account not only the world as it is, but the world as it will be." - Isaac Asimov (American, 1920-1992) Word for the day Mollify (v) To soften in feeling or temper, as a person; pacify; appease; to mitigate or reduce; (Source: Dictionary.com) Malice towards none Aug WPI down 4.95%. Will the Government come forward to claim credit for this fall in prices? or will it accept it as a problem? 2008 like panic selloff (not likely) will certainly be an opportunity The economists and strategists worldwide are busy preparing for the first Fed rate hike ("the Lift") in over a decade. The recent data has pushed the debate over "IF" to the fringes. The debate over "WHEN" is also no longer aggressive. The consensus is that it is certainly happening in calendar 2015. Those whose strategy and...

Fed hike: Sooner, faster

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Thought for the day "Life is pleasant. Death is peaceful. It's the transition that's troublesome." - Isaac Asimov (American, 1920-1992) Word for the day Genesis (n) An origin, creation, or beginning. (Source: Dictionary.com) Malice towards none After KM Birla, now Cyrus Poonawala buys an expensive (Rs725cr) property to live. What about investing in Make in India? Ain't it more Italian or Greek than American? Fed hike: Sooner, faster David Rosenberg, chief economist and strategist at Gluskin Sheff, highlights, in one of his recent reports , that the US labor market is on the verge of becoming a sellers' market. Rosenberg writes— "The ratio of the unemployed to the level of job openings has decline to 1.43x, far below the near-7x peak at the worst part of the Great Recession and a place we have been at just two other times before (since the JOLTS data were first pub...

Nifty: Precariously close to breaking point

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Thought for the day " People who think they know everything are a great annoyance to those of us who do. " Isaac Asimov (American, 1920-1992) Word for the day Swimmingly (adv) Without difficulty; with great success; effortlessly (Source: Dictionary.com) Malice towards none Three cheers for Leander Paes!!! Have you noticed, Indian players usually do much better when paired with foreigners. Doesn't it apply to business also? Indian managers have done exceedingly good with foreigners like Page, Gates, Buffet, etc. Nifty: Precariously close to breaking point Last Friday Nifty tested the breaking point of a major bearish head & shoulder pattern and staged a feeble bounce back. As the Nifty daily chart below shows, a material close below 7560 level will confirm a yearlong H&S pattern, opening the doors for a much larger and sharper correction over next six months. In vi...

Crisis far away, but govt pressing the pedal hard

Thought for the day "There is not much danger that real talent or goodness will be overlooked long; even if it is, the consciousness of possessing and using it well should satisfy one." -Louisa May Alcott (American, 1832-1888) Word for the day Lackadaisical (adj) Without interest, vigor, or determination; listless; lethargic (Source: Dictionary.com) Malice towards none Heard on Raisina Hills about Bihar strategy - "MSY will contest all seats allocated to JDU in Bihar alliance to garner the Yadav and Muslim votes. Post elections, both Yadav relatives (LY and MSY) will form a majority government and show the door to Nitish Kumar!" Crisis far away, but govt pressing the pedal hard The more the government sings "All is Well", the more the people are getting suspicious about the real health of the economy. Though the situation is still miles away from being qualify as "crisis", the dis...

What da' ya' bring to table?

Thought for the day "Housekeeping ain't no joke." -Louisa May Alcott (American, 1832-1888) Word for the day Ogdoad n) The number eight or group of eight. (Source: Dictionary.com) Malice towards none Over to Patna!   What da' ya' bring to table? The Finance Minister said on Wednesday that the government is finalizing a list of tax exemptions to be phased out as part of the exercise to reduce corporate tax rate to 25 per cent in four years. He also clarified that every tax demand cannot be termed as tax terrorism, he said, the government will not relent on pursuing black money in India or abroad. To me it implies that in next four years the effective corporate tax rate may be 10-15% higher than the present effective rate of tax. And it will be much more difficult to evade or "plan" tax liability. I am sure it does not sound music to many years. My interaction with many ...

First things first

Thought for the day "Let my name stand among those who are willing to bear ridicule and reproach for the truth's sake, and so earn some right to rejoice when the victory is won." -Louisa May Alcott (American, 1832-1888) Word for the day Febrile (adj) Feverish, with fever (Source: Dictionary.com) Malice towards none The so called "Modi effect" has been completely neutralized from equity and forex market. Time is now to decide - if a new beginning should be made or let things be like that! First things first Expectation is a strange animal. More you beat it, stronger it rises. Consistent underachievement is perhaps the only way to kill it. The national media widely and prominently reported the fall of Sensex to May 2014 level when the incumbent government assumed charge from the outgoing UPA government. INR is weaker by over 10% vs USD, since then. The astounding victory of N...

Jounrey more important than destination

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Thought for the day "Do the things you know, and you shall learn the truth you need to know." -Louisa May Alcott (American, 1832-1888) Word for the day Schlemiel (n) An awkward and unlucky person for whom things never turn out right. (Source: Dictionary.com) Malice towards none The simple question is "whether OROP will remain confined to armed forces, or it will spread to other public services also?" A more complex poser would be "Should it?" Jounrey more important than destination Speaking to the journalists at the sidelines of G-20 meet in Ankara, the finance minister Arun Jaitely reportedly said, "Factors like the Chinese devaluation of yuan and the US Fed's likely interest rate hike are " transient" and it will be only the real economy that will dictate the currency rate fluctuations and markets in India". I am not sure whether this statement was ma...

Nifty: Outlook weakens further

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Thought for the day "I am not afraid of storms for I am learning how to sail my ship." -Louisa May Alcott (American, 1832-1888) Word for the day Coincident (adj) Happening at the same time. (Source: Dictionary.com) Malice towards none The people who knew the former president Dr. Kalam, please tell me - How Kalam Saheb's soul would have reacted to his name being dragged in street level controversy? Nifty: Outlook weakens further India’s benchmark equity indices sank to their lowest level in 14 months on Friday and are staring at a volatile week ahead as well. On weekly chart, Nifty has perhaps given worst closing since January 2008. Nifty not only undid the entire recovery from low 7667 recorded last week and closed lower than the low of last week, but also did not make any attempt to test the gap created on Monday. The market has gained good momentum - volumes are higher and volatility i...

Till QE4

Thought for the day "The person you consider ignorant and insignificant is the one who came from God, that he might learn bliss from grief and knowledge from gloom." -Khalil Gibran (Lebanese, 1883-1931) Word for the day Well-nigh (adv) Very nearly; Almost (Source: Dictionary.com) Malice towards none It appears that the Bihar is headed towards "winner takes it all" results. 180-200 seats for NDA or Grand Alliance will surely resonate loud in the winter session of the Parliament. Till QE4 Attending an investors' meet in Delhi yesterday evening was quite a revelation. Despite heightened volatility, sub-par macro data, global turmoil and tight liquidity conditions - the greed still appeared the primary sentiment. There were though some signs of fear gaining currency in the whispers about the worsening credit quality of Indian corporates, especially those with USD debt on their books. Awaren...