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Nifty breaks the shackles. How far will it travel?

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Thought for the day "A gentleman would be ashamed should his deeds not match his words." -           Confucius (Chinese, 551-479BCE) Word for the day Fogdog (n) A bright spot sometimes seen in a fog bank. (Source: Dictionary.com) Malice towards none The Congress' strategy is intriguing. They are just busy cutting the BJP's line short instead of drawing a bigger line of their own. The whole campaign is centered on the theme - "whatever we did bad, you are doing worse"! Nifty breaks the shackles. How far will it travel? Nifty completed a bullish reverse head & shoulder pattern last week. However the volumes and volatility was much lower indicating slower momentum and lack of conviction. It is therefore less likely to show the kind of short covering and buying momentum seen usually seen post such bullish breakouts. Infosys results this week may be a key...

Planning the move from Macro to Micro

Thought for the day "You have no enemy except for yourself." -           Francis of Assisi (Italian, 1182-1226) Word for the day Assisi (Italian, 1182-1226) Word for the day Allegiant (adj) Loyal; faithful. (Source: Dictionary.com) Malice towards none The prerequisite for rectifying a mistake fully is honest admission of such mistake. Have various authorities honestly admitted what went wrong in the case of Vyapam? Planning the move from Macro to Micro Continuing from yesterday , I believe that the macro trade that has mostly driven the returns in Indian equities in past one year shall gradually yield way to a cyclical micro trade over next 6-12months. The cyclical micro trade may be driven by the following five primary factors: (1)   Improved execution led by clearance of stalled and incomplete projects. Prompt clearances and removal of admini...

How long this macro trade can drive the equity returns?

Thought for the day "Preach the Gospel at all times and when necessary use words." -           Francis of Assisi (Italian, 1182-1226) Word for the day Foison (n) Abundance, Plenty (Source: Dictionary.com) Malice towards none What happens when you spit at the Sun? How could someone defame me? How long this macro trade can drive the equity returns? Wednesday morning the financial markets appeared quite relieved and cheerful. Grexit concerns out of way for now and prospects of further reduction in energy cost on resumption of normal supplies from Iran charged the bulls and bears equally. Bull traders were motivated to take fresh positions as the benchmark indices crossed some key technical resistance levels and bears were pressurized to reduce short positions. This all occurred despite consensus on poor corporate performance and worsening political landscape clouding the k...

Over to "Lift"

Thought for the day " It is not fitting, when one is in God's service, to have a gloomy face or a chilling look. " -           Francis of Assisi (Italian, 1182-1226) Word for the day Magniloquent (adj) Lofty or grandiose in speech or expression; using a high-flown style of discourse; bombastic. (Source: Dictionary.com) Malice towards none Do you think the Italian Marines accused of murdering an Indian will (could) ever be put to justice in India? Should all our politicians just draw a lesson from the episode and let it go. Over to "Lift" As of this morning the Grexit has been replaced in cold storage and Iran seems to have got a deal. The global herd of professional traders shall be aggressively looking for the new goose to chase. The most likely candidate is the 'Lift" by the US Fed. "Lift" is prominent in the discussions since the completion of tapering in October last year. The lines ...

About feudal lords and a monkey

Thought for the day "If a superior give any order to one who is under him which is against that man's conscience, although he do not obey it yet he shall not be dismissed " -           Francis of Assisi (Italian, 1182-1226) Word for the day Mimesis (n) Imitation or reproduction of the supposed words of another, as in order to represent his or her character. (Source: Dictionary.com) Malice towards none May I seek a Fatwa from Ulema that only Rozadaar people have a right to Iftar. To everyone else Iftar is Haram! About f eudal lords and a monkey This week the legendary artist and my all time favorite Guru Dutt would have turned 90. His classic movie Sahib Biwi Aur Ghulam vividly depicted the decline of a feudal family, which could not manage its affairs in accordance with the evolving realities in post independence era. The feudal lords continued with their extravagant lifes...

Domestic investors hold the fort amidst global rout

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Thought for the day " Start by doing what's necessary; then do what's possible; and suddenly you are doing the impossible. " -           Francis of Assisi (Italian, 1182-1226) Word for the day Quixotic(adj) Extravagantly chivalrous or romantic; visionary ,impractical, or impracticable. (Source: Dictionary.com) Malice towards none What the options with Pakistan are but to keep the dialogue open! Domestic investors hold the fort amidst global rout The month of June witnessed about 1% fall in benchmark indices. In July YTM benchmark indices are almost unchanged. However, a further analysis of market internals would highlight that midcap and small cap have continued to outperform the benchmark indices even when institutions have withdrawn to fringes. June'15 witnessed the lowest turnover in a year in the cash segment. The average trade size also was the lowest, indicating...

The perfect storm

Thought for the day " Our insignificance is often the cause of our safety. " -           Aesop (Greek, 620-560BC)) Word for the day Peacock (v) To make a vainglorious display; strut like a peacock. (Source: Dictionary.com) Malice towards none Congress lost a lot of regional Satraps between 1991-2014 due to death, dissent or dominance. Do we see the same path for BJP in 2014-2024?   The perfect storm Many global wealth reports written over past six months may have already become irrelevant. The staggering statistics of wealth creation in China that overwhelmed the global financial community stand completely destroyed. Stand destroyed simultaneously is the facade of "all is well" in the global financial system that was meticulously built by the powerful central bankers through adoption of "non-conventional" policy measures post Lehman collapse in the summer of 2008. As ...

Focus on your strength

Thought for the day "The little reed, bending to the force of the wind, soon stood upright again when the storm had passed over. " -           Aesop (Greek, 620-560BC)) Word for the day Fisc (n) A royal or state treasury; exchequer. (Source: Dictionary.com) Malice towards none PM Modi would certainly be nominated for Noble Peace Prize. Wonder, is that the goal or the fringe! Focus on your strength The recently released Socio-economic Caste Census (SECC) data has opened many eyes. It not only demolishes many myths about the Indian growth model, but also highlights the adhoc and unsustainable character of the economic development. The outcome of the exercise taken for the first time also severely dents the argument in favor of famous "Make in India" plan. I am not startled by the data thrown by the mammoth exercise, since I have personally witnessed the ground reality during...

Who wants another Shakespeare

Thought for the day "Put your shoulder to the wheel. " -           Aesop (Greek, 620-560BC)) Word for the day Telegnosis (n) Supernatural or occult knowledge; clairvoyance. (Source: Dictionary.com) Malice towards none Good to know that India's food safety standards are much higher than UK and Singapore. Kudos FSSAI!!! Who wants another Shakespeare   Admittedly I am just an amateur reader of history and claim no authority to comment on it. Nonetheless, from the few pages of history of human civilization I have occasionally flipped over I could vividly make out that till a few decades ago the state played the primary role in promotion, encouragement and financing of the pursuits of excellence in the fields of art, science and technology. The development of commerce was left primarily to the private entrepreneurs with state limiting its role to providing basic logistic infras...

Consumerism, markets, aspirations and adhocism

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Thought for the day " A liar will not be believed, even when he speaks the truth. " -           Aesop (Greek, 620-560BC)) Word for the day Whodunit (n) A narrative dealing with a murder or a series of murders and the detection of the criminal; detective story. (Source: Dictionary.com) Malice towards none New Wonder of the world! The dispensation responsible for one third of the administration of Delhi needs US$90mn to tell people what has been done to make their life better in past five months! Would people not know by themselves if their life becomes any better? Consumerism, markets, aspirations and adhocism A vacation in serene hills of Garhwal Himalaya turned out to be revelation of sorts. Though I always had this slight inclination but picture was never so clear. I often doubted the projections of India's growth potential by economists and government authorities. Th...