Do it yourself

I travelled to the Agra, Aligarh and Bareilly divisions of the state of Uttar Pradesh last week. Holi being the principal festival of these regions, it was the peak season of festivities in these areas. Since, in the past two years, the Covid pandemic impacted the festivities to a great extent; this year’s celebrations were particularly enthusiastic. A good sugarcane and bumper wheat crop added to the farmers’ delight. Poor realization for potatoes was a little dampener. The elections to the state assembly have just concluded and the new government is yet to be formed. Both the principal political parties, the BJP and SP, have performed well in the elections. So the political leaders and workers were also seen celebrating with fervor. Broadly, the aerial socio-economic view of the region appeared quite ebullient and promising. There are few observations that I would like to share with the readers. These observations are relevant for understanding some popular political narratives...

On the Monday, 7 th of March 2022, Nifty opened with a cut of ~380points (or 2.3%), and ended the trading session almost at the opening level. Not much new had happened over the weekend to warrant this kind of fall on Monday morning. The Russia-Ukraine conflict was intense throughout the previous week and the commodity prices were already rising. Many friends enquired what could be the reason for this sharp cut on Monday. I was not sure about it, so I started inquiring from various market participants whose numbers are stored in my phonebook. Unsurprisingly, none offered any convincing explanation. Some people however felt compelled to offer an explanation, for the fear of losing the “expert” status they enjoy in my opinion. ``The exit polls today evening may show the BJP losing UP elections”, was the most common explanation offered by the experts. When I asked, how do you know about exit polls, sitting far away from UP?, they indicated that they have “credible sources” reporting fr...

Last weekend I happened to attend couple of e-meetings. The participants were mostly financial market participants. Few business persons and professional also were present. The agenda was primarily to discuss the current economic scenario and the trends in financial markets. However, within few minutes, the discussion digressed to the current socio-political environment. The views of the participants rekindled the memories of 1993 in my mind. It was summer of 1993. The country was in total turmoil at that time. The unprecedented balance of payment crisis in 1990-91 had forced the government to initiate significant economic reforms - some under pressure from IMF, some forced by the massive scam in financial markets, and some voluntarily. Many small and medium sized businesses - there were very few large businesses back then - were struggling for survival. Most of them would eventually become redundant over next one decade. Financial markets were still reeling beneath the debris of...