Do it yourself

The central government presently derives 63% of its resources from taxes (Direct Taxes 36% and Indirect Taxes 27%). 27% comes from borrowing and 10% from other sources. The present socio-political milieu is such that (i) the central government is becoming increasingly dependent on the regional parties, hence it is imperative that it would need to allocate more resources to the states ruled by the supporting regional parties; (ii) a larger proportion of the population is becoming increasingly dependent on the government for the basic necessities like food, shelter, education and healthcare, requiring the basic social sector spending to rise without any major improvement in the quality of life; (iii) supply side pressures are not abetting, keeping the inflation (including imported inflation) elevated, pressurizing USDINR and yields; and (iv) economic growth continues to be disproportionately dependent on government spending (both revenue and capex). Under these circumstances, the governm...

I had an opportunity to meet a group of market participants and industry representatives at a corporate event this week. The discussions over lunch and tea revolved around the three broader topics – (a) State of equity markets; (b) Expectations for the final Union Budget for FY25; and (c) Corporate performance. Unsurprisingly no one was interested in discussing politics, geopolitics and the US Fed’s policy. Equity markets Most people were satisfied with the performance of markets in general and their personal portfolios in particular. Almost everyone believed that the stock prices will continue to rise for the next couple of years at least; though there could be some intermittent corrections. Everyone appeared prepared to invest more money in stocks. The return expectations from equity investments were in high teens on the lower side. With a few exceptions, most people appeared market cap agnostic in their investment strategy. In fact, the awareness about SME segment stocks surpr...

  “Progress lies not in enhancing what is, but in advancing toward what will be.” —Khalil Gibran (Lebanese Thinker Poet, 1883-1931) Allaying all fears, the finance minister presented a brave budget. She took all Covid-19 blows on (fiscal) body and refused to yield to fiscal pressures. She prudently refused to indulge in allurements of raising resources through additional taxation. The Budget for FY22 is continuation of various measures announced during 2020 to support the economy. The recognition of the need of new economy (ecommerce workers, startups, e-learning, new education techniques etc.) and willingness to let go the control over even strategic CPSEs are signs of pragmatism. This is perhaps the only budget in independent India that does not propose to make any change in income tax rate structure. It is now upon the administrative ministries, departments and state governments responsible for executing the proposals. Like Rishabh Pant, who went to Australia with a poor r...

  As per media reports, the finance ministry officials shall start exercise for preparation of Union Budget for FY22 from 16 October 2020. The exercise usually starts with the finance ministry official and the finance minister meeting with various stakeholders, especially the business representatives; representatives of professional bodies like ICAI; officials from other administrative ministries; officials from state finance ministries; and policy making and statistical bodies etc. The suggestions made in these meetings are then considered in the preparation of final draft the budget documents. Budget making is normally a very complex exercise that requires special skills to strike an optimum balance between the expectations of various stakeholders. These expectations are invariable at odds with each other. Therefore pleasing most of the stakeholders is almost an impossible task. In past many finance ministers have used some Big Bang announcement to overwhelm the stakeholders so...

Union Budget FY21 - A caged canary aspiring to fly high The Finance Minister read out the longest ever budget speech. By the end of it she was too exhausted to even complete the speech. This pretty much explains the state of affairs. Like a caged canary aspiring to fly in the blue sky, the finance minister very enthusiastically read out the vision for new modern India. However, after two hours of aspirational efforts, it was evidently clear that she does not have enough strength to break the shackles and release herself. In the end, she was settled in the cage, totally exhausted and her wings ruffled. The positive take away from the budget statement is that the aspirations are really high and the vision of new modern India very clear. The government for the first time made an unambiguous admission that the way forward is a progressive socio-economic structure that is egalitarian but encourages and supports private enterprise. It is a major achievement to offici...