Do it yourself

Following the Custom: Balancing Faith and Fundamentals Each Diwali, as lamps light up homes, optimism lights up Dalal Street too. It’s that time of the year again. Business channels are abuzz with market commentators dressed in their festive best, sharing their annual outlooks on the economy and equities. Almost by ritual, hope dominates the narrative — and that’s not necessarily a bad thing. This year, with investor sentiment subdued and global uncertainties still clouding the horizon, a measured dose of optimism may be just what the market needs. Continuing the custom, here’s a closer look at what could turn favorable for Indian markets over the next one year — and what investors should keep an eye on. Domestic Drivers: The Spark Within Consumption revival on the horizon After three years of subdued consumption, several catalysts are now aligning. Rationalization of income tax and GST rates, material lending reforms by the RBI, a supportive rate environment, and a good monsoon could ...

  For me, Diwali this year was certainly not as it ought to be. Untimely demise of many close friends and relatives in the past few months; incessant horrific news flow from the active war zones; conspicuous signs of extreme socio-economic stress in a majority of the population; and apathy of the administration towards common man’s plight and worsening law & order situation dampened my spirit of festival. I spent the week wandering the streets, slums and villages of Delhi NCR region and adjoining districts. What I witnessed and experienced, makes me believe that blaming selling by the foreign investors for the extant pain in the stock markets is like treating “the effect” as “the cause” – which is not only inappropriate but borders foolishness. Household inflation, unemployment (including underemployment, disguised unemployment and most importantly unemployability), lack of basic civic infrastructure (drinking water, sanitation, primary health, decent primary education, etc.), ...

I have been doing market surveys during Diwali days for the past many years. Visits to various retail & wholesale markets in Delhi NCR and other nearby towns would usually provide useful insights into the latest economic conditions, consumer behaviour and consumption patterns. I could factor in these insights in my investment strategies to rebalance my portfolio in congruence with the latest socio-economic conditions. I cannot claim that my assessment of latest market conditions, as deduced from my observations and interactions with the market participants, have always been correct; though I would say that these insights provided clarity to my thoughts and enhanced my confidence in my portfolio. As usual, I have visited more than 50 retail (including shopping malls) and wholesale markets in NCR, Agra, and Jaipur in the past three weeks. What I observed this year is unprecedented. I have never been so confused in my reading of consumer behaviour. The footfalls in the market were per...

 The new year of the Goddess of Wealth (Mahalakshami) has started on a rather somber note for the Indian equities. After a very strong year since Diwali of 2020, the markets appear tired and uncertain. The tailwinds of easy money and lower borrowing cost, which were among the factors that supported strong market performance since Diwali of 2020, appear weakening; whereas the headwinds of inflation, tighter money, and slowing growth appear gaining strength. The valuation comfort that aided investors’ sentiments last year, is no longer available. The opportunity provided by the panic reaction to the Covid-19 pandemic has been mostly exploited by investors. Most of the low hanging fruits have already been plucked. The risk reward ratio is no longer favorable at the broader levels at least. The Covid-19 pandemic itself, and the response to the pandemic created numerous opportunities in past one and a half year. The market readily identified these opportunities, and investors posi...

It is a tradition amongst local brokerage houses, which primarily cater to the domestic household clients, to present a list of their top stock ideas to their clients on every Diwali. The ideas are presented usually with one year investment period, i.e. till next Diwali. Reading through the presentations of various brokerages this year, I found the following key messages: Kotak Securities As we advance towards getting the vaccine (by middle of next year) and economy gets back to normalcy, we can expect the economy driven sectors to outperform the defensives in Samvat 2077. Banks, NBFCs, automobiles, oil & gas, telecom, utilities, capital goods, cement and metals could come into focus in Samvat 2077. The potential upside in most of these sectors based on our one year price targets ranges between 20 & 39% (Vs single digit potential upside in Nifty50). Since most of the economy driven sectors are prone to market correction one should have an accumulation strategy in them rat...

 For past many years, it has become a tradition for popular market participants (brokers, fund managers, large investors, analysts etc.) to don finest attires and appear on special Diwali shows hosted by various TV channels to announce their prophecies for the traditional Indian New Year. In the spirit of the festivals of light, they enthusiastically speak about their outlook about the economy, financial markets, and investment opportunities. In earlier years, these prophecies were taken seriously by the audience, mostly household investors. However, based on my interaction with several people from the targeted audience, I feel, now days most people listen to the experts for validating their own positioning rather than for guidance. Whether in consonance of their positioning or otherwise, these prophecies are drowned in the noise of firecrackers on Diwali night itself. However given the mobility restrictions and popularization of digital media due to Covid-19 this year, most ex...