Do it yourself

  …continuing from yesterday . In my view, assimilating the impact of a sustained Indo-US trade standoff in a personal investment strategy is an extremely complicated task, for three reasons – (i) Indo-US relations are very deep and wide; (ii) Indo-US trade relations go much beyond import and export of goods and service; (iii) Indo-US trade relations are intricately intertwined with strategic, geopolitical and social relations. Hence, the impact of a prolonged standoff in the trade relations may not be confined merely to a couple of thousand Indian exporters, having a material exposure to US markets. In my view, a noticeable impact could be felt at economic, political, geopolitical, and financial levels. As of this morning, we do not know about the progress in back-channel negotiations. But visibly both the sides appear to have hardened their stance. India has outrightly rejected the reasons cited by the US administration for imposing penal tariffs, viz., purchase of crude oi...

The US administration has announced imposition of 50% additional tariffs (25% reciprocal and 25% penal), over and above the regular/MFN tariffs that were already in place, on merchandise imports from India. Certain items, like pharmaceuticals, that are part of separate trade negotiations, and services are presently not part of the new tariff rates and continue to be charged at the extant rates. This level of tariff is indubitably concerning, as it makes numerous Indian MSME businesses, especially those exporting textile, leather goods, small components, jewelry, carpets etc., incompetitive; and in many cases poses an existential threat to the exporting entities. For several MSME the US market contributes a substantial part of their revenue; and these entities were enjoying some advantage over competitors due to lower MFN tariffs. They not only lose this advantage, but become materially incompetitive due to these tariffs. These reciprocal and penal tariffs, in my view, tantamount to...

The two-decade period between 1988-2008 saw the most remarkable progress in the sphere of international relations and collaborations. The technological developments made global trade faster and cheaper, aiding global businesses to collaborate with distant partners to optimally exploit their core competencies to materially enhance productivity. End of the Cold War and fall of the Berlin Wall led to nearly full integration of global economies and unprecedented growth in global trade. The global financial crisis (2008-09) however paused the trend. The global trade and technological partners forces began to grow increasingly uncomfortable with technological, trade and political collaborations. Emerging global forces like China & India erstwhile global political powers like Russia, the UK, and Japan etc. found the terms of engagement unfavorable and started to focus on developing regional alliances. Breaking of global supply chains due to outbreak of Covid-19 pandemic provided further...

Early this year BRICS, a bloc of leading emerging economies, announced the induction of five new members, viz., Egypt, Ethiopia, Iran, Saudi Arabia, and the United Arab Emirates, to its fold. The ten-member bloc has a significant presence in global trade. More specifically, it exercises significant control over the global energy markets, controlling 42% of global oil production and 35% of total oil consumption. In July 2023, the then President of BRICS, South Africa claimed that over 50 emerging nations have expressed their desire to join the group. Recently, Russia’s Federation Council Committee on International Affairs, stated that BRICS would be expanded further as more than 40 countries are desirous of joining the group. The cooperation between BRICS members is free, and flexible and extends to a variety of subjects of common interest amongst members. The members and other countries desirous of joining the group, view BRICS as an alternative to global bodies viewed as dominated...

I vividly remember it was the winter of 2007. The global markets were in a state of total disarray. The subprime crisis was unfolding in the developed world. In the US, the financial system was on the verge of collapse. Several banks, insurers, and other financial institutions were reporting massive write-downs on their subprime Collateralized Borrowing and Lending Obligations (CBLO). The cost of protecting debt (Credit Default Swaps) was rising sharply. The US administration and Federal Reserve were mostly in denial, at least in their public posturing; even though the Fed had started to cut the benchmark fund rates from September 2007. Signs of a sovereign debt crisis had started emerging in peripheral Europe. In countries like Portugal, Iceland, Greece, and Spain (popularly called PIGS) treasury default swaps had spiked to indicate imminent default. The financial markets in the developed world had started correcting sharply. Both equity and bond prices had fallen. The emerging ...

Continuing from yesterday ( Struggle to find a balance ). From the developments, events, and engagements in the past two decades, it is evident that India has been making credible efforts to sustain an affirmative engagement with the global community. These efforts include opening the Indian economy to the global business community; actively participating in global alliances and forums; developing social and physical infrastructure; committing to global agreements in the areas like economic cooperation, climate change, transparency in fund flows & investments, crime prevention, terrorism, etc. These efforts have been made at three broad levels – (i)     At the state level through suitable changes in policy framework. This includes, inter alia , deeper strategic alliances with Western countries (civil nuclear deal, QUAD, etc.); bilateral (free) trade agreements, liberalized FDI regime; BRICS and G-20 cooperation; etc. The vaccine diplomacy during Covid was a sig...

  The investors and other market participants in their 50s and 60s would recall that there have been at least three occasions in the past three decades when India was considered the next best thing after sliced bread. Starting with the opening up of the economy in early 1990s, the narrative acquired a much louder echo after Roopa Purushothaman, a non-descript research analyst coined the term BRICS for a report to be published in the name of legendary Jim O’Neill (Chairman Goldman Sachs AMC) in 2001. During the global financial crisis (2008-2010) that weakened many developed economies, India and China emerged as two strongest pillars of support for the global economy, growing in high single digits despite the global crisis. Post Covid, since India has again emerged as one of the fastest growing economies, leaving even China behind, the narrative is again in vogue. There is absolutely no doubt that the Indian economy has never been intrinsically so strong in the past four decades. Th...

 Before I say anything, I would like to make it clear that I use the terms “investor”, “trader” and “punter” in the context of equity investments, very judiciously. To me an investor is a person who thoughtfully invests his money in a business to participate in the future growth of that business. A trader is person who is trying to optimize his return on capital by choosing from the best instruments available at any given point in time. It may be bond, fixed deposit, equity stock, gold, crypto currency, foreign exchange, other commodities etc. or a mix of these. Traders do not invest with the objective of “wealth creation”. Their focus is usually earning more than the risk free return while maintaining liquidity of his money. Punters buy financial assets or commodities just like lottery tickets. They get kicked by the prospects of hitting a jackpot someday and do not mind losing their entire capital in the process. Here we are talking about investors only. In summer of 2007, ...