The Reserve Bank of India holds US$702.78bn in foreign exchange reserves. In the popular macroeconomic analysis, especially in the context of the equity market. this piece of data is often used as one of the points of comfort by analysts.
This data could be viewed from multiple standpoints. For example –
Is it adequate to pay for the necessary imports in the near term, assuming the worst-case scenario of no exports could be made and no remittances are received. Currently, India’s monthly imports are appx US$67bn. However, a material part of these imports is crude oil and bullion. A part of the crude oil and bullion is re-exported after refining/processing. I am unable to figure out the precise net import number for domestic usage, but it would be safe to assume that about three fourth of US$67bn, i.e., US$50bn is for domestic usage. Allowing another 20% for “avoidable in emergencies” category of imports, we have appx US$40bn/month import bill payment obligations. By this benchmark we have sufficient reserves to pay for appx 18months of imports. This is a very comfortable situation from conventional yardsticks.
However, we need to consider interest payment and debt repayment obligations also to assess the adequacy of the foreign exchange reserves.
As per the latest RBI release (see here), India’s total external liabilities stood at US$736.3bn as on 31st March 2025. 41.2% or appx US$305bn of this debt is due for repayment within the next 12 months. Assuming an average interest rate of 5%, another ~US$35bn would be needed for interest repayments. This implies about half of our foreign exchange reserves are needed for debt servicing in the next 12 month. This matrix raises some questions on the adequacy of our US$703bn reserves.
It also highlights the importance of remittances (appx US$135bn in FY25), foreign portfolio investment (FPI) flows (appx US$13.6bn in CY2024, including equities and bonds), and net foreign direct investment (US$3.5bn in FY25). An adverse movement in any of these flow matrices could materially affect the external stability. This brings in the factors like geopolitical stability, internal political & law and order situation, relative valuations of Indian equities and bonds, market stability and integrity, domestic investment climate, foreign investment policy framework etc. into the picture. Any policy mistake, strife in foreign relations, civic unrest, overvaluation, fraud, scam etc. could adversely impact the external stability.
The news headlines like - “China restricting export of critical components and chemicals to India, withdrawing expert manpower from India” that can adversely affect exports or increase the cost of imports for Indian manufacturers; the US considering to impose tax on the outward remittances”, ‘the US considering 500% duties on countries importing oil from Russia”, etc., - makes one cautious about the external stability of the country.
The experts need to analyze the latest RBI data on India’s external liabilities. In particular, it needs to be assessed whether India can withstand a trade war with the US; a covert geopolitical confrontation with China; frequent cases of market manipulation; policies and procedures that make India a less attractive destination for foreign investments; worsening law & order situation on parochial issue like language, religion, regionalism, etc.
…more on this tomorrow
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