After several years of corporate & bank balance sheet repair and fiscal correction, the contours of India's next economic growth cycle are beginning to emerge. With the Reserve Bank of India (RBI) maintaining a growth-supportive stance; union government showing strong commitment to fiscal consolidation, easing financing pressures for the private sector; and global markets showing signs of stabilization as geopolitical confrontations ease and trade disputes settled; the stage is set for a potential economic upswing.
The spotlight is now on three competing themes — corporate consolidation, private capex, and household consumption — each pulling investor attention in different directions.
Corporate begin to re-leverage
After many years of deleveraging, corporate debt in India appears to have bottomed out and is now beginning to rise. This shift in trajectory marks a significant departure from the post-2016 era, where Indian companies focused on strengthening balance sheets following a wave of over-leveraged investments. According to recent analyses, corporate borrowing is rising as businesses seek to capitalize on emerging opportunities.
This shift is supported by a monetary environment that remains broadly pro-growth. The Reserve Bank of India (RBI) has maintained a balancing act between containing inflation and supporting economic momentum. Rates have been cut aggressively and RBI is pushing for a quick transmission.
Fiscal consolidation by the union government is also helping to ease crowding-out pressures in the credit markets. With the Centre projecting a glide path toward more sustainable fiscal deficits, room is being created for the private sector to tap into financial resources more freely.
RBI’s Growth-Supportive Stance and Fiscal Consolidation
The Reserve Bank of India has definitely turned growth supportive in the past one year, after maintaining a delicate balance between inflation growth. The rates have been cut aggressively and liquidity conditions have been made favorable. Targeted interventions to support small and medium enterprises (SMEs) and infrastructure projects, have bolstered private sector confidence.
Simultaneously, the Indian government’s commitment to fiscal consolidation has eased pressure on private financing. By reducing the fiscal deficit—projected to decline to 4.4% of GDP in FY26 from 5.6% in FY24—the government is crowding in private investment. Lower government borrowing means more capital is available for private enterprises, reducing competition for funds and potentially lowering borrowing costs. This synergy between monetary and fiscal policy is creating a fertile ground for private capex to flourish.
Global context changing quickly
Globally, financial markets have been navigating turbulent waters for the past some time. Monetary policies remained tight in major economies like the United States and the European Union. Geopolitical concerns were elevated as multiple war fronts were opened. The political regime changes in the US early this year, also triggered an intense trade war.
However, recent developments suggest a quick shift. There are conspicuous signs of geopolitical stability, particularly with noteworthy steps toward peace in conflict zones. The US administration is showing significant flexibility in negotiating trade deals, raising hopes for an early and durable end to tariff related conflicts. Inflationary pressures are also easing, especially with stable energy prices. These all factors combined raise hopes for a global monetary easing cycle. The US Federal Reserve and the European Central Bank have hinted at potential rate cuts in 2025, which could lower global borrowing costs and improve capital flows to emerging markets like India.
For India, this presents an opportunity to attract foreign portfolio investments (FPIs) to boost market sentiments, as well as foreign direct investment (FDI) for long-term projects, especially in manufacturing and green energy. The government’s Production-Linked Incentive (PLI) schemes and “Make in India” initiatives are well-positioned to capitalize on this opportunity, but execution will be key.
Investors’ dilemma
Amidst corporate optimism, supportive policy environment, positively turning global context, investors and traders are facing a dilemma – whether to stay bullish on the capex theme or turn focus towards the consumption theme that has been lagging behind for the past couple of years.
In my view, investors need to examine two things—
1. What is driving this resurgence in corporate debt?” Is it being used to fund acquisitions of operating or stressed assets, or is it fueling fresh capacity creation?”
2. Whether easing inflation, lower interest rates, good monsoon, and improved employment prospects due to capex translating to on-ground activity, will accelerate private consumption growth, or households will focus on repairing their balance sheets and increase savings?
What is driving this resurgence in corporate debt – Consolidation or capacity addition?
The distinction is crucial. While the former drives job creation, productivity, and long-term growth, the latter may only temporarily improve capital utilization rates and return metrics. Acquiring distressed assets or merging with competitors may lead to short-term efficiency gains but could delay the broader economic benefits of new capacity creation. Whereas, investments in fresh capacities could signal a long-term commitment to growth, aligning with India’s aspirations to become a global manufacturing hub.
While mergers and acquisitions (M&A) activity has been robust in the past few years, particularly in sectors like infrastructure and manufacturing, greenfield investments have seen limited areas like renewable energy (driven mostly by government incentives) and steel.
Equity markets are evidently betting on a capital investment Supercycle. Stocks of capital goods makers, construction contractors, and building material firms have seen sharp re-rating over the past year. Order books are swelling, and forward guidance from several listed players suggests growing optimism.
Consumption paradox
While the equity markets are bullish on capex-driven sectors, investor enthusiasm for household consumption remains subdued. This is puzzling, given the macroeconomic tailwinds that should theoretically support private consumption. Easing inflation, which dropped to 4.7% in mid-2025, coupled with the prospect of lower interest rates and improving employment prospects due to rising capex, should create a virtuous cycle of demand. Yet, private consumption, which accounts for nearly 60% of India’s GDP, has been lackluster over the past two years.
Several factors may explain this paradox. First, uneven income distribution means that the benefits of economic growth are not reaching all segments of the population equally. Rural consumption, in particular, has been hampered by volatile agricultural incomes and inadequate infrastructure. Second, high inflation in essential goods like food and fuel, despite overall moderation, continues to erode purchasing power for lower- and middle-income households. Third, policy support in the form of subsidies and cash transfers is being gradually unwound as fiscal discipline returns. Finally, the stress in the household balance sheet, especially in the wake of the Covid-19 pandemic may have also hampered consumption growth.
The equity market’s lack of enthusiasm for consumption-driven sectors like FMCG (fast-moving consumer goods) and retail reflects these concerns. Investors appear to be betting on a capex-led recovery rather than a consumption-driven one, prioritizing sectors poised to benefit from infrastructure spending and industrial growth. However, sustained economic growth will require a revival in household consumption, as capex alone cannot drive inclusive prosperity.
What to do?
The question is what investors should do under the present circumstances? Should they continue to back the obvious beneficiaries of capex — engineering firms, infra developers, lenders to industry? Or should they begin building positions in consumption plays, in anticipation of a cyclical rebound?
In my view, both themes may ultimately play out — but on different timelines. Capex is here and now, led by policy push and balance sheet strength. Consumption is the laggard, but if the macro indicators hold, its turn could come with a lag of a few quarters.
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