Notes from Vijay Gaba's Diary

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Tuesday, December 6, 2022

Wait for better entry points

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The Indian economy has grown 9.7% (yoy) in 1HFY23, as compared to 13.7% growth recorded in 1HFY22. Given the consensus growth forecast for F...
Friday, December 2, 2022

China+1 opportunity

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In the past couple of years China+1 has been one of the most popular buzzwords used in the Indian market context. The term is popularly used...
Thursday, December 1, 2022

Need to think beyond obvious

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I had a chance to meet a small group of seasoned market participants yesterday. The group included a couple of brokers, some investors, a ba...
Wednesday, November 30, 2022

Nifty at 18700 – what now?

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  The benchmark indices in India are now trading at their highest ever levels. In fact, in the past one year, India (+9.6%) has been one of ...
Tuesday, November 29, 2022

Two short stories

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What is most wonderful? Yaksha asked Yudhishthira “what is most wonderful?” Yudhishthira answered – “Every day numerous living entities are ...
Friday, November 25, 2022

Higher for longer

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  The minutes of the last meeting of the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) of the US Federal Reserve System (Fed), held in November 2022,...
Thursday, November 24, 2022

Balance of global economy tilting away from the west

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The latest edition of the FIFA World Cup, arguably the most popular sporting event in the world, is currently being played in Qatar - a tiny...
Wednesday, November 23, 2022

Mind the flocks of black swans lurking around the corner

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  The toughest job in the present day environment is risk management. Of course, it has never been an easy job; but when we consider the pro...
Tuesday, November 22, 2022

Wait for a good entry point

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  The former NITI Aayog Vice Chairman, Arvind Panagariya claimed that India may record a real GDP growth rate of 8% in FY23. However, there ...
Friday, November 18, 2022

Earnings growth trajectory flattening

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The latest earnings season (2QFY23) ended, leaving the markets with “glass half full or glass empty” feelings. The aggregate results were mo...
Thursday, November 17, 2022

Is Plaza 2.0 on the anvil?

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  Thirty seven years ago, on 22 nd   September of 1985, the representatives from the now defunct G-5 met at Plaza Hotel, New York to discuss...
Wednesday, November 16, 2022

Politico-economic ideologies slithering in obscurity

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  In my view, we have entered a phase in world history where the politico-economic ideologies, e.g., free market, socialism, communism etc.,...
Tuesday, November 15, 2022

Relative return argument vs absolute return strategy

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  The benchmark Nifty 50 index has given almost no return in the past 12 months. Nifty Smallcap 100 Index is down over 13% and Nifty Midcap ...
Friday, November 11, 2022

Survival is the key for now

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  If I must choose one word to define the current global situation, it will indubitably be “tumultuous”. There is commotion, agitation, emot...
Thursday, November 10, 2022

Stay cautious

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Yesterday some media reports indicated that  according to an internal assessment by the finance ministry   “India balance of payment (BoP) i...